NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	113		Excitement	8.1 [204]		MVP	Daniel Gibson (CLE): +17.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	114		Comeback	1.5 [704]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -19.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.08	0.00	9	67%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14	0.10	-0.01	-0.05	13	75%	0.25	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.01	15	61%	0.15	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	82%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	4	80%	0.15	2	-0.09	7	86%	0.02
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	0.04	5	60%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.19	0.01	-0.18	0.02	13	67%	0.13	5	-0.32	4	100%	0.04

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	6	85%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	21	63%	0.33	7	-0.23	10	70%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	13	58%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.04	9	75%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	1	60%	0.02	1	-0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	16	51%	0.08	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	1.8	35.2	15.5	28.5	2.6	35.3	147.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -10.2%

BOS -0.6%

CLE +29.9%

CLE +27.5%

CLE +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	13.9	16.7	15.4	120.2	121.3	105.7
season	15.6	16.4		108.0	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.9		104.1	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	14.1	13.4	12.6	13.9
CLE	14.6	15.9	17.9	18.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Scalabrine	35	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.06	-3	2	-5	14.3	13.7	0.56	17.5	16.3	1.16
Kendrick Perkins	58	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-6	11	12.8	15.8	-2.98	17.2	16.0	1.20
Eddie House	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-2	3	13.9	13.9	-0.01	14.8	17.6	-2.84
Glen Davis	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-1	1	15.7	13.3	2.44	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Paul Pierce	67	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.41	4	-5	9	14.6	12.2	2.40	16.7	16.6	0.10
James Posey	56	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-4	7	13.6	14.5	-0.95	16.4	17.2	-0.84
Leon Powe	14	14	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	6	-13	16.1	13.6	2.51	16.2	16.8	-0.57
Tony Allen	40	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	8	-17	14.3	13.7	0.59	16.4	16.9	-0.52
Ray Allen	82	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.47	3	-4	7	13.2	18.7	-5.52	16.6	17.3	-0.67
Rajon Rondo	65	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	1	-3	13.9	13.9	0.01	17.6	14.8	2.84

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	80	83	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.40	12	-11	23	16.5	17.6	-1.11	14.3	10.9	3.43
Daniel Gibson	63	60	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.57	-3	4	-7	16.3	17.5	-1.12	13.8	14.2	-0.42
Larry Hughes	71	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.41	-1	2	-3	16.9	16.1	0.81	13.3	15.7	-2.44
Donyell Marshall	26	26	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	-3	7	19.1	15.8	3.34	13.8	14.0	-0.18
Ira Newble	46	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	3	-5	16.6	16.8	-0.27	14.1	13.7	0.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	67	66	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.39	-6	7	-13	17.8	14.0	3.84	13.5	14.9	-1.36
Dwayne Jones	25	27	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-6	13	15.0	17.3	-2.26	14.9	13.6	1.28
Drew Gooden	38	39	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-2	5	17.1	16.5	0.59	14.5	13.6	0.90
Damon Jones	35	33	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	4	-7	15.8	17.3	-1.48	13.3	14.3	-0.98
Devin Brown	19	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	7	-13	14.2	17.3	-3.12	14.8	13.7	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.46,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.57,0.71,0.76,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 97, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.96,1	92.9%
NYK 107, TOR 118	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.54,0.72,0.54,0.72,0.85,0.92,1	92.5%
HOU 81, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.4%