NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	91		Excitement	6.4 [500]		MVP	Shane Battier (HOU): +6.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	83		Comeback	1.6 [856]		LVP	Yi Jianlian (MIL): -13.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	75%	0.12	1	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.01	9	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	27	57%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Mike James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.01	0.00	11	44%	-0.01	3	-0.06	5	40%	-0.06
Aaron Brooks	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	6	42%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	12	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	0.00	0.12	7	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	20	49%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.07
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	18	36%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	7	33%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Yi Jianlian	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	10	25%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	26.3	16.0	21.7	2.0	33.0	124.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +66.9%

MIL -9.1%

HOU +11.3%

MIL -24.7%

HOU +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIL	NBA	HOU	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	17.8	15.4	107.1	97.6	105.7
season	16.2	15.8		104.6	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.2		110.7	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	17.0	18.3	14.3	16.1
MIL	19.3	15.8	17.7	18.5	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	64	65	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-4	16	15.8	17.1	-1.33	18.2	16.5	1.68
Rafer Alston	59	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	1	6	15.8	16.7	-0.81	17.5	18.5	-1.03
Bonzi Wells	38	37	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	3	2	15.6	16.5	-0.98	17.5	18.0	-0.49
Yao Ming	67	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	4	0	16.4	14.9	1.46	17.4	19.3	-1.88
Tracy McGrady	75	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	4	0	15.9	17.8	-1.93	17.8	17.8	0.01
Mike James	10	9	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	4	0	17.8	15.9	1.93	17.8	17.8	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	8	7	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	4	0	14.6	16.2	-1.62	21.1	17.5	3.66
Aaron Brooks	26	26	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	7	-6	16.7	15.8	0.81	18.5	17.5	1.03
Charles Hayes	13	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	4	0	18.8	15.6	3.25	15.2	18.3	-3.11
Luis Scola	36	36	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	10	-12	15.9	16.2	-0.26	18.2	17.5	0.75
Carl Landry	29	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	11	-14	16.2	16.1	0.12	18.0	17.7	0.27

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-8	8	16.7	17.9	-1.25	14.2	16.3	-2.09
Charlie Villanueva	32	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-8	8	17.8	17.8	0.09	17.1	15.5	1.53
Bobby Simmons	42	43	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-7	6	17.6	18.0	-0.43	15.9	16.3	-0.33
Royal Ivey	48	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-4	0	18.1	17.3	0.82	16.1	16.1	0.03
Charlie Bell	51	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	16.7	19.4	-2.61	15.8	16.5	-0.64
Desmond Mason	40	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-1	-6	18.5	17.2	1.30	16.3	15.9	0.44
Yi Jianlian	53	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	0	-8	17.8	17.8	-0.09	15.5	17.1	-1.53
Andrew Bogut	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	0	-8	17.9	16.7	1.25	16.3	14.2	2.09
Mo Williams	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	0	-8	18.0	16.2	1.85	16.2	15.2	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.11,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 105, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.04,0,0	92.6%
TOR 104, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.39,0.26,0.11,0.06,0.11,0	92.6%
LAL 101, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.13,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.04,0,0	92.4%