NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	8.1 [213]		MVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): +32.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	21.7 [64]		LVP	Juan Carlos Navarro (MEM): -25.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.33,0.33	0.14	0.18	-0.01	11	91%	0.36	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.17	-0.01	0.19	0.01	14	47%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	5	110%	0.20	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	5	90%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	6	79%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
J.R. Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	27%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.18,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	26	50%	0.00	5	-0.11	12	83%	0.05

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	10	64%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	20	51%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.1,-0.01,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	26	54%	0.12	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Andre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	17	51%	0.11	6	-0.15	3	100%	0.04
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	3	-0.13	1	100%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.14	-0.12	0.00	12	17%	-0.16	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	26.3	15.6	24.3	2.4	32.4	127.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +61.6%

MEM -5.4%

MEM -34.1%

DEN +25.8%

DEN +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	12.1	16.1	15.4	103.9	100.0	105.7
season	13.3	14.9		108.2	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.2		109.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	10.4	14.5	11.9	12.1
MEM	12.7	17.3	17.5	17.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	74	75	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-7	18	12.0	12.3	-0.28	17.0	13.6	3.48
Allen Iverson	102	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	12.1	0.0	12.12	16.1	0.0	16.12
Linas Kleiza	78	79	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	5	-6	12.2	11.9	0.26	16.4	15.0	1.44
Anthony Carter	64	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.47	-5	9	-14	12.5	11.5	0.94	16.3	15.9	0.40
Marcus Camby	78	78	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	9	-14	12.2	11.7	0.48	15.4	18.4	-2.95
Yakhouba Diawara	37	35	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.11	7	-3	10	12.6	11.8	0.79	16.4	16.0	0.47
J.R. Smith	26	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.14	7	-3	10	10.7	12.6	-1.96	13.7	16.9	-3.18
Eduardo Najera	51	50	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	2	0	11.9	12.3	-0.43	16.1	16.1	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Carlos Navarro	70	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.33	6	-10	16	15.7	17.1	-1.38	12.7	10.9	1.79
Darko Milicic	85	85	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.38	7	-11	18	16.1	16.2	-0.07	12.2	11.6	0.56
Mike Miller	78	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.42	8	-12	20	16.7	14.2	2.55	12.4	11.2	1.16
Casey Jacobsen	21	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	2	-8	15.7	16.2	-0.57	10.9	12.4	-1.59
Andre Brown	17	17	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	7	-18	16.2	16.1	0.07	11.6	12.2	-0.56
Kyle Lowry	99	99	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-5	6	16.0	21.0	-5.03	12.2	10.3	1.84
Hakim Warrick	46	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	13	-30	16.1	16.1	0.02	10.9	13.2	-2.35
Rudy Gay	94	93	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	16.2	15.2	0.94	12.3	9.9	2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.73,0.75,0.93,0.78,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 94, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.81,0.7,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.58,0	90.1%
CHI 88, POR 84	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.47,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.57,0.42,0	89.9%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.58,0	89.2%