NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	93		Excitement	3.6 [1064]		MVP	Caron Butler (WAS): +4.8%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	1.0 [1200]		LVP	Juan Carlos Navarro (MEM): -9.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	18	58%	0.09	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.02	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	10	61%	0.06	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	65%	0.02	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	58%	0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Andre Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	2	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Darko Milicic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	0.00	0.03	14	50%	-0.02	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	19	46%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	12	58%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	9	55%	0.06	5	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	57%	0.02	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.04
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	17	56%	0.04	3	-0.04	9	67%	-0.02
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	27.5	15.6	23.2	2.4	32.5	129.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +28.4%

MEM -0.3%

WAS +12.1%

WAS +8.7%

WAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	WAS	NBA	MEM	WAS	NBA
this game	13.5	16.2	15.4	94.9	108.3	105.7
season	14.9	16.1		103.3	106.8
opponent	15.5	14.9		107.4	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.3	13.0	12.6	14.3	13.5
WAS	13.4	17.7	15.1	19.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Casey Jacobsen	7	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-21	31	9.6	13.8	-4.27	22.0	15.6	6.35
Andre Brown	26	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.34	9	-20	29	15.0	13.0	1.93	19.8	14.8	5.06
Kyle Lowry	65	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-17	23	13.5	13.6	-0.14	17.0	14.4	2.54
Mike Miller	74	72	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-6	1	13.7	12.9	0.83	16.1	16.4	-0.26
Hakim Warrick	55	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-11	11	13.6	13.4	0.18	16.9	15.1	1.80
Bobby Jones	23	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	13.5	13.6	-0.08	16.7	16.0	0.62
Mike Conley	33	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.20	-17	6	-23	13.6	13.5	0.14	14.4	17.0	-2.54
Juan Carlos Navarro	73	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	13.1	14.8	-1.74	15.1	19.0	-3.87
Rudy Gay	62	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.26	-23	12	-35	14.2	12.4	1.86	15.8	16.8	-0.96
Darko Milicic	72	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.16	-20	9	-29	13.0	15.0	-1.93	14.8	19.8	-5.06

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	82	85	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.13	16	-5	21	16.0	17.4	-1.38	13.8	12.0	1.78
Brendan Haywood	67	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-8	27	15.7	17.3	-1.62	13.8	12.9	0.86
DeShawn Stevenson	78	82	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.06	18	-7	25	16.2	16.3	-0.12	13.5	14.0	-0.55
Antawn Jamison	77	80	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.05	17	-6	23	15.7	18.1	-2.40	13.3	14.6	-1.24
Antonio Daniels	62	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	10	-9	15.8	16.9	-1.09	13.5	13.7	-0.24
Roger Mason Jr.	34	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	10	-9	16.3	16.1	0.23	13.1	13.8	-0.69
Darius Songaila	15	17	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	5	1	17.9	15.9	2.08	14.0	13.4	0.56
Dominic McGuire	11	11	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	12	-13	21.1	15.5	5.55	14.7	13.4	1.34
Nick Young	18	18	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	9	-7	17.3	15.9	1.42	15.1	13.2	1.92
Andray Blatche	23	20	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.28	-13	24	-37	17.2	15.8	1.37	12.0	13.9	-1.94
Oleksiy Pecherov	13	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.15	-11	22	-33	14.8	16.4	-1.63	12.7	13.6	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 89, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	96.8%
BKN 91, MIL 116	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
LAL 85, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%