NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	10.5 [46]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +34.7%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	9.2 [294]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -46.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.14	-0.02	0.01	10	91%	0.24	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	19	61%	0.14	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.01	7	71%	0.08	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.05	0.03	-0.09	-0.01	12	56%	0.10	1	-0.15	3	100%	0.03
Craig Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.13,0.05,-0.13	0.03	-0.14	0.01	14	59%	0.14	3	-0.27	6	100%	0.09
Antoine Walker	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.12,-0.22	0.01	-0.23	0.01	11	54%	-0.17	1	-0.05	4	25%	-0.16

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.18,0.35	0.35	0.05	0.30	0.00	26	53%	0.46	4	-0.12	14	79%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	61%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	3	80%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	11	44%	0.00	1	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	10	41%	-0.06	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.14	0.00	7	57%	-0.02	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.25,-0.4,-0.47	-0.47	-0.06	-0.40	0.01	19	50%	-0.10	5	-0.37	14	86%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	28.4	15.6	26.0	1.8	37.6	138.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -46.1%

DEN +37.1%

DEN +46.8%

DEN +14.2%

MIN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.1	15.4	110.2	114.4	105.7
season	15.9	13.3		102.2	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.2	16.6	13.4	15.8	15.5
DEN	12.6	14.0	14.8	14.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	71	73	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.36	15	-18	33	14.9	16.9	-1.97	14.5	12.9	1.59
Sebastian Telfair	63	65	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.21	5	-8	13	15.8	14.8	1.07	14.1	14.0	0.06
Ryan Gomes	70	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.47	13	-16	29	14.3	18.5	-4.21	14.6	12.7	1.94
Al Jefferson	78	75	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.39	9	-12	21	14.9	17.6	-2.69	14.2	13.6	0.56
Greg Buckner	23	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	7	-17	16.4	15.2	1.22	12.7	14.4	-1.67
Corey Brewer	16	13	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	11	-25	18.6	14.9	3.71	11.5	14.5	-2.93
Antoine Walker	52	52	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.52	-1	-2	1	15.3	15.6	-0.28	14.6	13.5	1.05
Craig Smith	34	34	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	0.05	-21	18	-39	18.4	13.9	4.48	13.1	14.6	-1.56
Marko Jaric	83	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.32	-11	8	-19	15.2	16.9	-1.74	14.0	14.6	-0.62

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	47	46	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.14	27	-24	51	12.2	15.8	-3.61	17.4	13.7	3.64
Allen Iverson	89	90	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-8	19	13.8	17.1	-3.33	15.4	15.7	-0.32
Marcus Camby	85	86	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	2	-1	14.4	11.6	2.84	15.1	17.9	-2.80
J.R. Smith	42	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.04	9	-6	15	13.6	14.5	-0.88	16.3	14.7	1.58
Carmelo Anthony	76	78	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.42	-11	14	-25	14.6	12.3	2.22	14.8	18.1	-3.32
Yakhouba Diawara	12	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	1	1	11.6	14.4	-2.84	17.9	15.1	2.80
Anthony Carter	61	59	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.56	-16	19	-35	14.7	13.0	1.70	14.6	16.7	-2.05
Linas Kleiza	73	74	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.23	-8	11	-19	14.9	11.7	3.20	15.1	16.5	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.31,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 69, CHI 71	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.25,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.43,0.41,1	92.9%
ATL 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.65,0.73,0.55,0.55,0.32,0.58,1	89.9%
LAC 72, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,1	89.0%