NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	5.1 [781]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +17.0%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	1.9 [257]		LVP	Joe Smith (CHI): -10.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	16	66%	0.19	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.04
Jarvis Hayes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	8	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	31%	-0.02	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	58%	0.04	4	-0.11	6	67%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	12	40%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.21	0.03	0.07	17	70%	0.19	1	-0.02	13	100%	0.04
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.04	-0.03	15	54%	0.15	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	7	60%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.7	33.0	15.6	28.3	1.8	35.0	139.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +20.0%

CHI +14.9%

DET -6.1%

CHI +21.0%

CHI +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	17.1	15.6	15.4	92.0	110.2	105.7
season	16.8	15.0		108.8	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		105.4	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.4	16.8	16.7	16.0	17.1
CHI	15.8	13.8	17.6	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	14	15	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-18	20	15.0	17.6	-2.55	17.2	15.2	1.95
Jarvis Hayes	36	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-11	6	16.8	17.4	-0.63	15.3	15.8	-0.47
Antonio McDyess	61	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-15	14	17.7	15.9	1.76	15.7	15.2	0.48
Jason Maxiell	45	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-11	6	16.0	18.3	-2.35	15.1	16.1	-0.94
Rodney Stuckey	16	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.06	-5	-11	6	14.7	17.7	-2.93	13.5	16.1	-2.61
Tayshaun Prince	77	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-15	14	17.2	17.0	0.17	16.0	12.4	3.68
Rasheed Wallace	42	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-9	2	18.3	16.1	2.18	16.6	14.5	2.07
Chauncey Billups	72	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.03	-11	-5	-6	17.7	14.7	2.93	16.1	13.5	2.61
Walter Herrmann	15	14	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.07	-17	1	-18	15.7	17.5	-1.79	12.1	16.2	-4.09
Richard Hamilton	62	62	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	0.11	-30	14	-44	17.7	15.8	1.90	15.0	17.0	-1.96

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	65	66	0.62	-0.12	0.75	-0.02	22	-6	28	15.7	15.1	0.61	17.0	17.7	-0.71
Andres Nocioni	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.04	18	-2	20	15.9	13.8	2.12	17.2	16.9	0.26
Chris Duhon	44	44	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	7	2	15.8	15.3	0.48	16.9	17.4	-0.43
Ben Gordon	67	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	3	10	15.1	17.1	-2.05	16.2	19.7	-3.51
Joakim Noah	43	42	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	8	0	15.4	15.8	-0.36	16.8	17.4	-0.60
Ben Wallace	48	48	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	8	0	15.5	15.6	-0.08	17.3	16.9	0.36
Kirk Hinrich	47	48	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.11	10	6	4	15.5	15.7	-0.19	17.2	17.0	0.23
Tyrus Thomas	13	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	18	-20	13.8	15.9	-2.12	16.9	17.2	-0.26
Joe Smith	38	39	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.08	-6	22	-28	16.3	15.1	1.20	19.2	15.5	3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 86, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
ORL 95, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
NYK 90, UTA 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%