NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Excitement	5.4 [707]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +22.3%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	1.3 [853]		LVP	Brandon Roy (MIN): -14.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	7	89%	0.17	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	11	58%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	17%	0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Stiemsma	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Conroy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.08	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Cunningham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Alexey Shved	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.03	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	3	40%	-0.01	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.05	-0.02	10	92%	0.29	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.01	14	60%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.01	0.06	14	65%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	7	43%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	16	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	30.4	15.8	24.5	1.7	28.6	125.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +7.3%

MIN -2.7%

TOR +6.5%

TOR +36.5%

TOR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	TOR	NBA	MIN	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	16.9	15.4	96.6	116.7	104.1
season	15.6	16.1		101.3	104.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		105.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.9	17.0	15.0	15.5	15.3
TOR	15.5	15.8	17.0	19.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	14	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	20.4	14.3	6.01	14.3	17.3	-3.00
Malcolm Lee	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	-13	7	14.0	15.4	-1.40	17.2	16.8	0.41
Lou Amundson	7	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	-13	7	14.0	15.4	-1.40	17.2	16.8	0.41
Brandon Roy	44	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-15	11	14.1	16.5	-2.38	15.5	18.2	-2.70
Alexey Shved	39	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-9	-1	16.7	14.2	2.54	17.4	16.5	0.85
Nikola Pekovic	57	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-14	9	14.3	17.0	-2.67	16.2	17.9	-1.66
Derrick Williams	51	52	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-14	9	14.4	16.5	-2.06	16.0	18.1	-2.08
Luke Ridnour	62	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-15	11	14.0	18.2	-4.21	17.0	16.6	0.41
Dante Cunningham	31	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-7	-5	18.1	13.8	4.35	18.5	16.1	2.38
Will Conroy	13	14	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	-5	-9	15.9	15.2	0.74	18.7	16.5	2.17
Greg Stiemsma	29	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-10	1	16.7	14.6	2.12	17.7	16.4	1.32
Chase Budinger	35	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-10	1	17.0	14.2	2.77	18.8	15.7	3.15
Andrei Kirilenko	56	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-9	-1	14.0	17.5	-3.53	16.4	17.6	-1.20

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Anderson	56	55	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.07	20	-1	21	17.1	16.4	0.70	15.9	14.4	1.52
Amir Johnson	38	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	3	13	18.9	15.4	3.45	17.2	13.8	3.41
Ed Davis	41	40	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.08	14	5	9	18.6	15.4	3.14	16.7	14.1	2.65
Landry Fields	41	40	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	11	-3	17.1	16.7	0.36	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Jose Calderon	24	24	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	11	-3	17.3	16.7	0.56	18.4	14.2	4.22
DeMar DeRozan	61	62	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.12	13	6	7	16.8	17.0	-0.23	14.6	16.8	-2.13
Kyle Lowry	61	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	9	1	16.8	17.0	-0.23	14.4	17.1	-2.70
Andrea Bargnani	49	49	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	14	-9	15.4	18.6	-3.14	14.1	16.7	-2.65
Jonas Valanciunas	47	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	17	-15	15.4	18.5	-3.13	14.2	16.5	-2.36
Dominic McGuire	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	15.8	16.9	-1.14	9.7	15.6	-5.80
John Lucas III	13	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	17.0	16.9	0.14	15.2	15.3	-0.13
Terrence Ross	14	14	-0.09	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	22	-25	15.1	17.2	-2.14	15.0	15.3	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 81, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
CLE 105, UTA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,0.99,1	95.0%
MIA 69, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%