NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	7.0 [381]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +29.4%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	4.0 [372]		LVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): -13.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29	0.14	0.15	-0.01	13	73%	0.41	2	-0.12	7	100%	0.06
Travis Outlaw	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.17	0.04	0.11	-0.02	12	56%	0.21	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
James Jones	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	7	73%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	59%	0.06	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.11,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.07	-0.03	29	57%	0.16	2	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	61%	0.12	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	3	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	17	51%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.14	0.05	-0.03	12	25%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.5	31.4	18.6	33.7	1.8	36.2	151.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.4%

POR +4.8%

POR +0.2%

MIA -11.7%

POR +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.4	110.1	101.1	105.7
season	16.7	16.0		105.5	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.4		108.3	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.0	15.0	16.1	17.3	16.8
MIA	12.6	17.7	14.5	17.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	70	71	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.43	14	-7	21	17.1	15.9	1.11	15.4	15.3	0.13
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	65	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.42	14	-7	21	17.5	14.9	2.66	15.2	15.8	-0.54
James Jones	46	45	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.35	15	-8	23	16.2	17.5	-1.34	16.8	13.9	2.96
Jarrett Jack	52	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-5	17	15.3	18.9	-3.55	16.4	13.9	2.55
Travis Outlaw	51	53	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-1	9	15.8	18.1	-2.29	16.7	13.4	3.33
Channing Frye	22	24	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.07	6	1	5	15.8	17.1	-1.33	13.9	15.9	-1.98
Steve Blake	37	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.11	-5	12	-17	18.9	15.3	3.55	13.9	16.4	-2.55
Joel Przybilla	32	31	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	12	-17	18.3	16.0	2.33	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Martell Webster	43	45	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.05	-8	15	-23	17.5	16.2	1.34	13.9	16.8	-2.96
Sergio Rodriguez	19	19	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	-0.14	-7	14	-21	15.9	17.1	-1.11	15.3	15.4	-0.13
Raef LaFrentz	8	7	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.12	-9	16	-25	14.0	17.1	-3.10	13.1	15.6	-2.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	14	15	0.39	-0.89	1.29	0.07	11	-18	29	17.1	15.0	2.10	13.5	17.5	-3.95
Shaquille O'Neal	67	68	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.34	11	-18	29	15.3	15.4	-0.09	18.2	12.4	5.75
Ricky Davis	65	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-10	13	15.6	14.8	0.73	16.1	18.7	-2.64
Mark Blount	7	6	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-1	-5	11.6	15.7	-4.12	14.0	17.0	-3.02
Daequan Cook	35	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-3	-1	17.1	14.3	2.77	12.9	19.4	-6.53
Udonis Haslem	79	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	15.2	16.5	-1.34	17.3	13.7	3.55
Dorell Wright	37	36	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.10	-12	5	-17	15.1	15.5	-0.39	17.1	16.6	0.54
Jason Williams	68	67	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.34	-15	8	-23	14.9	16.8	-1.92	18.2	12.7	5.44
Dwyane Wade	78	77	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.36	-18	11	-29	15.2	16.7	-1.50	17.1	15.0	2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.24,0.48,0.68,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.52,0.47,0.21,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.22,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 95, CLE 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.36,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.08,0	90.3%
MIA 106, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.03,0.02,0.03,0	90.3%
MIL 91, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0	90.2%