NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	7.5 [363]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +25.3%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	3.0 [216]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -21.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.14	0.02	14	73%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.13	-0.02	13	56%	0.20	1	-0.00	6	67%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.15	0.12	0.06	0.03	17	64%	0.17	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rodney McGruder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	17	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	12	37%	-0.06	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	11	65%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.03
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.01	17	50%	0.11	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	14	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	16	45%	0.01	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	10	43%	-0.03	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.00	11	28%	-0.09	4	-0.13	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	32.2	15.4	27.3	1.8	31.3	134.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.3%

DEN -5.1%

DEN -19.2%

MIA +48.9%

DEN -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.6	14.8	106.0	99.0	107.7
season	15.4	14.4		106.7	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		111.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	12.2	15.8	13.6	14.3
DEN	13.2	16.6	13.0	15.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	49	48	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-4	16	15.3	13.3	1.99	16.0	13.4	2.65
Wayne Ellington	68	67	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	-1	10	13.7	15.7	-2.03	14.5	15.0	-0.54
James Johnson	72	70	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-1	10	13.5	16.4	-2.89	14.3	15.5	-1.20
Tyler Johnson	62	61	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	0	8	13.5	15.7	-2.22	14.2	15.3	-1.02
Willie Reed	36	34	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	1	6	13.4	14.8	-1.44	14.3	14.8	-0.48
Luke Babbitt	47	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-2	12	14.0	14.6	-0.58	15.2	14.1	1.07
Hassan Whiteside	64	65	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	7	-6	14.8	13.4	1.44	14.8	14.3	0.48
Josh McRoberts	31	31	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	14	-20	16.9	13.1	3.76	15.1	14.4	0.67
Goran Dragic	71	71	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.07	-10	18	-28	14.9	13.0	1.89	14.0	16.3	-2.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	51	52	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-12	16	13.9	15.5	-1.60	13.3	15.4	-2.17
Alonzo Gee	3	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-7	6	15.0	14.6	0.37	8.7	14.5	-5.82
Wilson Chandler	61	60	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-8	8	14.4	15.0	-0.55	13.4	15.7	-2.27
Danilo Gallinari	75	77	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-12	16	14.0	16.7	-2.79	14.7	12.9	1.81
Nikola Jokic	53	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-10	12	13.7	15.7	-2.02	13.3	15.4	-2.06
Jameer Nelson	77	79	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-10	12	14.1	16.4	-2.28	14.6	13.0	1.60
Juan Hernangomez	17	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	15.8	14.4	1.43	12.1	14.7	-2.68
Jusuf Nurkic	35	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	1	-10	15.5	14.1	1.40	14.9	14.0	0.89
Kenneth Faried	52	54	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.30	-17	9	-26	15.9	13.3	2.59	15.6	12.8	2.87
Emmanuel Mudiay	71	71	-0.90	0.40	-1.30	-0.31	-20	12	-32	15.7	12.0	3.73	15.2	12.1	3.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.37,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.03,0.02,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 91, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.8%
OKC 126, ORL 117	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.62,0.44,0.26,0.16,0.01,0.14,0.07,0.02,0,0	91.7%
DET 93, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0	91.6%