NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	120		Excitement	9.7 [72]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +85.7%
Sacramento Kings	122		Comeback	3.0 [161]		LVP	Devean George (DAL): -6.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.72	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.72	0.15	0.57	-0.00	16	69%	0.79	3	-0.07	4	50%	0.03
Devin Harris	0.35	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.35	0.13	0.23	0.02	10	86%	0.52	4	-0.17	9	78%	0.03
Eddie Jones	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.13	0.00	6	83%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	52%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.02	10	75%	0.26	3	-0.25	8	100%	0.10
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.09	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	4	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.86	0.86	0.34	0.52	0.01	16	91%	0.96	2	-0.11	11	82%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.69	0.69	0.07	0.62	-0.00	16	61%	0.72	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.05	15	61%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.10	-0.00	16	35%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	48%	0.01	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	29.2	16.4	26.6	2.5	43.3	146.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +4.2%

DAL -7.9%

SAC +7.7%

SAC +40.4%

SAC +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.0	15.4	126.3	127.1	105.7
season	16.1	14.9		108.9	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.4		108.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.6	16.9	17.3	14.8	16.1
SAC	13.8	12.6	15.4	14.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	44	44	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.28	0	-2	2	16.7	15.6	1.03	15.0	13.3	1.69
Jose Juan Barea	18	16	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.00	2	-4	6	17.2	15.9	1.28	13.9	14.1	-0.13
Juwan Howard	18	19	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-3	4	16.0	16.2	-0.16	13.9	14.1	-0.12
Devean George	18	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	1	-4	16.4	16.1	0.32	13.5	14.2	-0.71
Jason Terry	68	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-5	8	16.2	15.8	0.44	13.7	14.9	-1.15
Eddie Jones	57	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-4	6	14.9	18.0	-3.12	14.5	13.4	1.11
Brandon Bass	48	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-3	4	16.3	15.9	0.38	12.8	15.2	-2.42
Dirk Nowitzki	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.46	-1	-1	0	16.0	16.5	-0.45	14.3	13.3	0.94
DeSagana Diop	9	11	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	2	-6	15.4	16.2	-0.75	14.5	14.0	0.57
Devin Harris	71	74	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.40	-9	7	-16	16.1	16.3	-0.28	13.8	14.8	-0.95
Josh Howard	51	51	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.61	-5	3	-8	16.4	15.8	0.62	14.5	13.6	0.87

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	74	72	1.21	-0.71	1.93	0.72	17	-15	32	13.6	15.6	-2.01	16.4	15.2	1.26
Brad Miller	79	77	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.48	8	-6	14	14.1	14.0	0.05	16.1	16.4	-0.32
John Salmons	83	84	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.50	3	-1	4	14.2	12.8	1.47	15.9	18.2	-2.32
Francisco Garcia	71	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	-2	6	14.0	14.1	-0.11	16.0	16.4	-0.43
Kevin Martin	55	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	0	2	13.6	14.7	-1.08	16.3	15.8	0.48
Quincy Douby	34	36	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.25	-5	7	-12	14.2	14.0	0.21	15.6	16.4	-0.78
Spencer Hawes	5	5	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	3	-4	10.8	14.2	-3.42	15.8	16.1	-0.34
Justin Williams	3	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	5	-8	15.7	14.0	1.68	17.7	16.1	1.70
Mikki Moore	56	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	12	-22	14.7	13.0	1.70	16.2	16.0	0.22
Dahntay Jones	20	17	-0.59	1.09	-1.68	-0.44	-5	7	-12	14.6	13.9	0.71	16.7	16.0	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.97,0.93,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.53,1	92.3%
PHI 98, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.78,0.84,1	91.5%
IND 101, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.9,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	91.4%