NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	92		Excitement	4.7 [853]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +13.2%
Washington Wizards	84		Comeback	1.1 [561]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -20.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	13	80%	0.21	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Charles Hayes	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	6	44%	0.03	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	15	50%	0.09	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Shane Battier	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	16	54%	0.04	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	65%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Dominic McGuire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	13	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.04	11	59%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.06	0.01	16	35%	-0.09	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	27.3	14.5	24.8	3.0	29.0	126.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.4%

WAS -2.7%

HOU +10.3%

WAS -8.2%

HOU +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	WAS	NBA	HOU	WAS	NBA
this game	17.1	15.0	15.4	102.2	94.4	105.7
season	16.2	16.1		104.6	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.2		107.4	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.2	16.0	16.1	23.1	17.1
WAS	15.8	16.7	13.9	13.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	75	75	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.12	18	-10	28	16.9	18.3	-1.37	14.9	16.1	-1.22
Luther Head	64	63	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-7	22	16.5	18.7	-2.21	14.7	15.8	-1.02
Yao Ming	76	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	4	0	17.3	16.0	1.33	14.8	16.1	-1.24
Shane Battier	75	73	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	7	-6	16.9	18.3	-1.37	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Charles Hayes	48	48	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.03	9	-1	10	15.1	19.4	-4.24	14.9	15.3	-0.41
Luis Scola	36	35	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	17.9	16.6	1.28	16.1	14.4	1.72
Dikembe Mutombo	14	16	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	4	0	16.0	17.3	-1.33	16.1	14.8	1.24
Bonzi Wells	35	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	12	-16	18.0	16.5	1.48	14.8	15.2	-0.45
Aaron Brooks	27	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	17	-26	21.2	15.4	5.86	16.0	14.6	1.40

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dominic McGuire	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-14	20	12.0	15.1	-3.11	42.7	16.2	26.43
Darius Songaila	34	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-14	20	15.4	14.9	0.50	19.0	16.0	3.07
Nick Young	33	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.25	6	-14	20	15.0	15.1	-0.12	20.4	15.1	5.32
Andray Blatche	38	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-8	8	15.3	14.8	0.47	17.5	16.8	0.63
Roger Mason Jr.	48	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-9	10	14.4	15.8	-1.32	18.6	15.4	3.23
Antonio Daniels	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	3	-14	15.4	14.7	0.76	15.3	18.9	-3.62
Antawn Jamison	70	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	14.9	15.7	-0.81	16.6	19.2	-2.58
DeShawn Stevenson	52	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	4	-16	15.3	14.6	0.68	15.1	19.9	-4.75
Brendan Haywood	55	56	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.05	-14	6	-20	14.9	15.4	-0.50	16.0	19.0	-3.07
Caron Butler	68	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.02	-17	9	-26	15.2	14.7	0.50	16.3	19.3	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, TOR 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
CHI 125, BKN 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.6%
SEA 91, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0	94.6%