NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	7.2 [348]		MVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): +25.1%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.6 [389]		LVP	Keyon Dooling (ORL): -19.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.25	0.03	0.22	-0.00	14	62%	0.35	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.01	0.05	-0.06	5	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	18	60%	0.22	4	-0.12	7	86%	-0.01
Luther Head	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	12	46%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.15	-0.07	-0.03	12	40%	0.01	6	-0.19	6	100%	0.04

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	13	69%	0.27	1	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.09	-0.01	15	44%	0.12	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	10	60%	-0.03
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.12	0.01	9	45%	-0.03	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	31.4	16.4	24.3	2.4	37.4	138.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +28.3%

HOU +2.4%

HOU +10.4%

ORL -2.1%

HOU +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ORL	NBA	HOU	ORL	NBA
this game	17.1	13.6	15.4	103.2	98.9	105.7
season	16.2	15.1		104.6	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.2		104.6	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	16.8	16.8	18.9	17.1
ORL	13.4	12.0	14.5	14.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	35	35	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.16	13	-11	24	16.1	17.7	-1.62	14.6	13.0	1.52
Luther Head	64	67	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-4	10	16.5	18.2	-1.66	13.1	14.8	-1.67
Rafer Alston	86	88	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	1	0	17.2	16.0	1.15	13.7	12.4	1.28
Shane Battier	78	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	1	0	17.1	17.1	-0.08	13.3	15.1	-1.81
Aaron Brooks	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.29	-1	3	-4	17.8	16.6	1.16	14.0	13.4	0.67
Yao Ming	59	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	5	-8	17.3	16.7	0.61	14.0	13.0	0.95
Steve Novak	8	9	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	-1	4	14.1	17.3	-3.22	15.9	13.4	2.52
Luis Scola	34	33	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	4	-6	17.4	16.9	0.45	12.5	14.2	-1.68
Bonzi Wells	65	66	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.19	-8	10	-18	17.6	15.7	1.88	13.5	13.8	-0.31

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	30	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.23	5	-7	12	12.5	14.1	-1.67	16.9	17.1	-0.24
Keith Bogans	27	26	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-1	0	13.3	13.7	-0.49	18.2	16.6	1.51
Maurice Evans	23	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	3	-8	14.3	13.4	0.97	18.8	16.5	2.24
Carlos Arroyo	35	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	7	-16	13.8	13.5	0.35	14.8	18.4	-3.63
Jameer Nelson	60	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.46	7	-9	16	13.5	13.8	-0.35	18.4	14.8	3.63
Rashard Lewis	83	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-4	6	13.5	14.3	-0.83	16.8	19.2	-2.40
Keyon Dooling	68	67	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-1	0	13.7	13.3	0.49	16.6	18.2	-1.51
Dwight Howard	65	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	5	-12	14.1	12.5	1.67	17.1	16.9	0.24
Hedo Turkoglu	84	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-1	0	13.5	14.4	-0.85	16.9	18.4	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.23,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 80, DAL 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.22,0.06,0.05,0	93.4%
NYK 92, ATL 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.15,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%
NYK 102, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	92.4%