NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	74		Excitement	2.5 [1258]		MVP	Nick Young (WAS): +10.6%
Washington Wizards	96		Comeback	1.0 [1166]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	61%	0.11	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Earl Barron	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	37%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	52%	-0.01	2	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	4	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	25%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.16	0.00	-0.04	12	43%	-0.00	7	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.01	-0.07	6	57%	0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	69%	0.07	3	-0.00	10	80%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	12	57%	0.05	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	0.01	0.09	11	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	125%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	-0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.8	31.0	15.7	25.5	2.6	26.0	125.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +33.8%

WAS +6.3%

MIA -0.1%

WAS +8.3%

WAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.3	15.4	80.4	107.9	105.7
season	16.0	16.1		99.0	106.8
opponent	15.5	15.4		107.4	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	15.7	16.0	18.0	16.5
WAS	14.8	13.0	14.6	19.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexander Johnson	32	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-26	30	16.7	16.3	0.40	18.4	13.7	4.61
Mark Blount	27	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.21	5	-27	32	17.0	16.2	0.82	18.2	14.2	4.07
Joel Anthony	27	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.18	-9	-13	4	16.3	16.5	-0.17	15.4	15.3	0.02
Dorell Wright	25	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-14	6	16.8	16.3	0.53	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Earl Barron	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.46	-23	1	-24	18.9	14.9	3.95	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Luke Jackson	56	52	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-15	8	16.1	17.0	-0.94	15.9	14.5	1.43
Daequan Cook	62	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-12	2	16.4	16.6	-0.16	15.8	14.3	1.55
Dwyane Wade	57	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.26	-24	2	-26	16.2	16.9	-0.69	13.8	17.9	-4.05
Ricky Davis	77	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.04	-15	-7	-8	15.7	20.3	-4.55	15.0	17.2	-2.23
Udonis Haslem	61	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.16	-23	1	-24	16.1	17.1	-1.01	13.7	18.8	-5.06

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.33	25	-3	28	14.1	17.8	-3.65	16.8	15.7	1.08
DeShawn Stevenson	49	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.30	24	-2	26	13.4	17.7	-4.23	16.3	16.6	-0.28
Caron Butler	58	59	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.49	30	-8	38	14.8	16.4	-1.64	17.2	15.2	1.94
Roger Mason Jr.	62	64	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.11	17	5	12	15.8	14.4	1.40	17.1	15.0	2.15
Brendan Haywood	45	46	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.42	24	-2	26	14.4	16.3	-1.92	17.0	15.9	1.17
Andray Blatche	43	45	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	22	-22	16.3	14.5	1.76	15.5	17.4	-1.94
Darius Songaila	44	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	23	-24	16.6	14.2	2.41	16.1	16.8	-0.72
Nick Young	30	31	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	18	-14	14.8	15.6	-0.83	15.6	16.9	-1.27
Mike Wilks	40	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	24	-26	17.7	13.4	4.23	16.6	16.3	0.28
Dominic McGuire	15	16	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.33	-11	33	-44	18.4	14.7	3.67	13.6	17.1	-3.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 73, SEA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
VAN 82, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
MEM 101, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1	97.4%