NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	108		Excitement	6.3 [513]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +25.7%
Dallas Mavericks	111		Comeback	1.3 [912]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -6.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.20	0.08	0.02	14	79%	0.28	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	40%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.01	16	59%	0.06	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
JJ Redick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	9	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	0.01	12	56%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	13	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.09	-0.02	24	57%	0.25	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.06
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.02	-0.01	10	70%	0.16	1	-0.01	10	100%	0.06
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	13	61%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	11	68%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.06	-0.01	11	36%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	24.6	16.3	29.5	2.6	37.0	137.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.2%

DAL +13.6%

DAL +9.6%

ORL -8.5%

DAL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	17.4	15.4	117.4	123.3	105.7
season	15.1	16.1		109.9	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.6		105.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.6	16.7	15.0	13.1	14.3
DAL	17.4	16.8	18.6	16.9	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	35	33	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.03	8	-11	19	13.5	14.8	-1.26	18.8	16.5	2.30
Adonal Foyle	22	21	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.03	7	-10	17	16.9	13.5	3.38	18.2	17.1	1.11
Keyon Dooling	34	30	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.15	7	-10	17	14.9	13.9	0.93	19.1	16.5	2.62
JJ Redick	19	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-1	-1	13.5	14.5	-0.97	16.1	17.7	-1.57
Keith Bogans	65	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-2	1	13.6	16.0	-2.42	17.0	18.3	-1.29
Hedo Turkoglu	81	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-1	-1	14.5	12.7	1.78	17.2	19.0	-1.79
Jameer Nelson	59	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.27	-12	9	-21	13.7	15.3	-1.53	16.5	19.1	-2.62
Dwight Howard	70	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.38	-10	7	-17	13.5	16.9	-3.38	17.1	18.2	-1.11
Rashard Lewis	77	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.42	-12	9	-21	15.1	10.3	4.81	17.1	18.9	-1.85

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	63	62	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.34	18	-15	33	16.7	19.1	-2.41	14.0	14.9	-0.90
Dirk Nowitzki	77	78	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-8	19	16.8	21.1	-4.31	13.9	16.5	-2.60
Josh Howard	74	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-4	11	16.9	19.7	-2.80	13.4	18.5	-5.09
Erick Dampier	61	60	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-5	13	16.6	19.1	-2.58	14.4	14.1	0.35
Eddie Jones	38	37	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-12	27	16.0	18.4	-2.40	15.7	13.3	2.40
Devean George	18	20	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	8	-13	18.8	17.0	1.74	15.5	13.9	1.61
DeSagana Diop	16	16	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	7	-11	21.4	16.5	4.92	14.6	14.2	0.40
Jason Terry	41	45	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.15	-9	12	-21	17.8	17.0	0.81	14.8	13.8	0.99
Jerry Stackhouse	40	42	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.26	-13	16	-29	18.9	16.2	2.67	13.3	15.1	-1.85
Brandon Bass	22	24	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.08	-13	16	-29	20.4	16.4	4.00	16.2	13.6	2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, IND 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%
ORL 91, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.95,1,1	93.9%
OKC 94, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.86,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.85,0.86,0.96,0.98,0.9,0.93,1	93.8%