NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	87		Excitement	8.9 [119]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +12.8%
Miami Heat	91		Comeback	3.0 [617]		LVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): -15.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	10	52%	0.10	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	16	47%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Chris Richard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.06	0.02	18	51%	0.04	2	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Ryan Gomes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Rashad McCants	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,0.02,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	18	50%	0.11	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.04
Michael Doleac	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.01	4	83%	0.18	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.11	0.01	22	47%	0.18	3	-0.11	20	90%	0.17
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.00
Luke Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.06	5	-0.12	6	50%	-0.07
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	8	45%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.6	30.5	15.8	28.4	2.7	44.6	151.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -12.4%

MIA +15.6%

MIA +23.6%

MIA +27.4%

MIN -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	15.4	87.9	92.9	105.7
season	15.9	16.0		102.2	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.0		108.3	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.2	14.3	15.4	14.5	14.9
MIA	13.6	17.8	13.4	13.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Gomes	52	51	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.20	12	-16	28	13.9	15.9	-1.95	15.7	12.9	2.87
Chris Richard	23	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-5	6	15.7	14.6	1.02	16.6	13.7	2.93
Michael Doleac	52	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-4	4	14.6	15.1	-0.49	14.3	14.4	-0.14
Rashad McCants	74	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-9	14	14.5	16.0	-1.57	14.9	12.9	1.94
Marko Jaric	44	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.01	-10	6	-16	16.6	13.5	3.06	14.5	14.2	0.27
Craig Smith	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	2	-8	14.7	15.1	-0.40	13.4	15.2	-1.76
Sebastian Telfair	80	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	14.3	17.3	-2.96	13.8	16.5	-2.68
Al Jefferson	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-1	-2	14.9	14.7	0.24	14.3	14.6	-0.32
Corey Brewer	47	47	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.19	-16	12	-28	15.9	13.9	1.95	12.9	15.7	-2.87

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	81	82	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-9	22	14.2	15.4	-1.19	15.2	13.2	1.97
Chris Quinn	34	33	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-6	16	13.0	15.1	-2.09	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Udonis Haslem	90	91	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-4	12	13.9	20.1	-6.27	14.7	16.5	-1.77
Shaquille O'Neal	59	58	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-5	14	14.8	13.6	1.21	16.1	13.1	2.98
Ricky Davis	64	67	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	3	-2	13.8	15.5	-1.69	14.4	15.8	-1.39
Alonzo Mourning	39	41	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	9	-14	13.6	14.8	-1.21	13.1	16.1	-2.98
Mark Blount	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	8	-12	20.1	13.9	6.27	16.5	14.7	1.77
Luke Jackson	10	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	7	-10	19.4	13.8	5.60	16.8	14.7	2.15
Jason Williams	53	55	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.08	-2	6	-8	14.2	14.5	-0.27	14.6	15.2	-0.56
Dorell Wright	52	50	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.00	-7	11	-18	15.5	13.1	2.33	14.9	14.8	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.78,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 107, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.46,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.84,1	92.9%
SAC 78, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.73,1	92.0%
BOS 84, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.9,0.91,0.91,1	91.7%