NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	9.0 [117]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +28.9%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	6.8 [269]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -16.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	12	46%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.11,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	19	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jake Voskuhl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mo Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	50%	0.17	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	4	87%	0.07	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.05	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	5	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Yi Jianlian	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	11	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	15	41%	0.00	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.11

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.17	0.00	14	73%	0.33	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	10	71%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	88%	0.20	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.12	0.00	12	54%	0.18	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Mikki Moore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	36%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.33,-0.33,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	-0.00	16	32%	0.02	3	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	26.6	15.6	24.2	2.5	31.7	129.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.4%

SAC +7.3%

SAC +4.5%

SAC +10.2%

MIL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	17.2	15.1	15.4	105.7	106.7	105.7
season	15.8	14.9		103.4	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.2		108.0	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	16.7	17.4	18.6	17.2
SAC	15.7	16.0	13.9	15.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yi Jianlian	48	48	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-3	3	17.6	16.8	0.73	14.8	15.5	-0.78
Andrew Bogut	70	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.33	6	-9	15	17.5	16.4	1.01	15.5	13.5	2.04
Royal Ivey	31	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	3	-9	16.0	17.9	-1.88	13.9	15.8	-1.86
Desmond Mason	55	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-1	-1	17.3	17.1	0.25	14.7	15.8	-1.10
Mo Williams	66	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.39	4	-7	11	17.5	16.5	1.06	16.0	12.7	3.25
Charlie Bell	42	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	0	-3	17.0	17.5	-0.57	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Jake Voskuhl	18	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	6	-15	16.4	17.5	-1.01	13.5	15.5	-2.04
Michael Redd	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-1	-1	17.6	15.7	1.92	15.2	14.8	0.37
Charlie Villanueva	40	42	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.46	-3	0	-3	16.8	17.6	-0.73	15.5	14.8	0.78

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	70	69	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.50	8	-5	13	14.8	16.4	-1.63	17.7	15.6	2.06
Francisco Garcia	62	59	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.49	5	-2	7	15.0	15.3	-0.27	17.0	17.7	-0.66
Kenny Thomas	20	20	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	-3	9	14.0	15.5	-1.46	17.6	17.1	0.52
Quincy Douby	25	23	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	-3	9	14.2	15.5	-1.24	17.6	17.1	0.43
Brad Miller	67	67	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.25	0	3	-3	15.5	14.0	1.46	17.2	17.4	-0.23
Spencer Hawes	29	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	0	3	14.4	15.5	-1.11	16.9	17.4	-0.57
Metta World Peace	73	72	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	8	-13	15.5	13.4	2.20	17.1	18.1	-0.99
Beno Udrih	56	57	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.20	-3	6	-9	15.7	14.1	1.59	17.5	16.8	0.63
Mikki Moore	48	46	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.14	-5	8	-13	15.3	14.9	0.38	16.8	17.7	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.26,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.32,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.69,0.54,0.24,0.42,1	90.8%
IND 110, PHI 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.73,1	90.6%
CHH 100, UTA 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	90.5%