NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Excitement	10.9 [36]		MVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): +68.5%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	4.8 [240]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -30.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0.68	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,0.68	-0.03	0.71	-0.01	13	58%	0.83	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.05
Rashad McCants	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	73%	0.10	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Craig Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	15	62%	0.15	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Richard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.01	15	20%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	10	40%	-0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.31	-0.17	-0.14	-0.00	25	31%	-0.25	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.10

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,0.58	0.58	-0.07	0.64	-0.01	21	45%	0.68	4	-0.10	5	80%	-0.07
Josh Smith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.36	0.36	0.07	0.28	-0.01	19	62%	0.47	4	-0.11	7	86%	-0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	11	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	15	67%	-0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	5	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	1.8	29.5	15.0	24.2	2.3	41.0	143.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +56.2%

ATL +18.6%

MIN -52.1%

ATL +23.7%

ATL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ATL	NBA	MIN	ATL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.2	15.4	95.7	94.7	105.7
season	15.9	15.4		102.2	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.0		107.2	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	17.2	14.5	15.3	18.8	16.4
ATL	14.8	13.2	16.7	12.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	54	54	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.09	8	-9	17	16.0	17.0	-1.00	14.6	13.8	0.77
Chris Richard	5	5	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-5	9	15.4	16.5	-1.08	18.6	14.0	4.60
Rashad McCants	34	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-1	1	15.6	16.9	-1.31	13.3	14.8	-1.55
Ryan Gomes	15	16	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.15	-14	13	-27	19.0	15.9	3.08	14.9	14.1	0.84
Corey Brewer	87	88	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.53	9	-10	19	16.3	17.5	-1.16	14.2	14.6	-0.36
Greg Buckner	18	19	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.23	-19	18	-37	18.9	15.8	3.06	15.1	14.0	1.01
Sebastian Telfair	60	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.40	2	-3	5	17.3	14.9	2.39	14.8	13.2	1.61
Al Jefferson	80	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	16.9	13.5	3.44	14.0	15.4	-1.31
Marko Jaric	78	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.65	7	-8	15	15.8	19.9	-4.11	14.1	14.8	-0.73
Michael Doleac	34	37	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.63	-3	2	-5	14.7	17.4	-2.70	13.2	14.9	-1.68

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	68	66	1.09	-0.59	1.69	0.45	22	-21	43	13.9	15.0	-1.11	18.0	12.7	5.29
Marvin Williams	66	65	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.40	16	-15	31	13.8	15.1	-1.29	17.8	13.2	4.59
Anthony Johnson	56	57	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-12	25	13.8	14.9	-1.11	18.5	13.2	5.31
Joe Johnson	92	90	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.41	4	-3	7	14.1	17.3	-3.19	16.6	11.0	5.60
Josh Smith	88	87	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.51	-4	5	-9	14.1	15.6	-1.44	16.5	15.5	0.98
Mario West	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	1	-1	3.0	14.4	-11.36	0.0	16.4	-16.42
Salim Stoudamire	9	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.14	-7	8	-15	13.9	14.3	-0.39	11.2	17.0	-5.75
Acie Law	30	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	7	-13	15.4	13.7	1.64	14.1	17.4	-3.36
Josh Childress	35	33	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.08	-14	15	-29	15.6	13.4	2.20	12.9	18.3	-5.39
Shelden Williams	30	30	-0.56	1.06	-1.61	0.00	-19	20	-39	15.0	13.9	1.16	13.0	18.0	-5.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.55,0.71,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.74,1	90.8%
MIA 79, NJN 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.25,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.73,1	90.6%
GSW 95, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.95,1	90.2%