NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.3 [273]		MVP	Reggie Bullock (DET): +32.0%
Detroit Pistons	98		Comeback	3.1 [470]		LVP	Blake Griffin (DET): -28.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney McGruder	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.14	0.00	8	69%	0.22	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	12	57%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	14	69%	0.28	5	-0.15	1	0%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	4	100%	0.16	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.05
Hassan Whiteside	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.01	6	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	8	0%	-0.13
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,0,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	17	42%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.14,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.13	0.21	0.02	13	66%	0.32	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.08	0.00	7	86%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.00	17	61%	0.25	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.10	0.00	8	50%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	3	33%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.05,-0.29	-0.29	0.02	-0.29	0.01	24	54%	-0.18	5	-0.11	11	82%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	27.5	14.4	28.3	2.0	33.5	134.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -36.9%

DET +34.7%

DET +30.3%

DET +21.0%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	14.4	15.9	14.3	97.9	103.2	109.3
season	14.8	15.3		106.3	107.5
opponent	14.0	14.3		109.0	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	13.5	14.5	16.5	14.4
DET	15.3	15.3	16.8	16.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	39	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-7	9	14.4	14.5	-0.12	15.7	16.0	-0.36
Derrick Jones Jr.	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-6	7	12.7	14.9	-2.20	15.8	15.9	-0.04
James Johnson	61	60	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-6	7	14.6	14.2	0.40	16.1	15.6	0.50
Wayne Ellington	8	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-3	1	13.6	14.5	-0.88	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Tyler Johnson	67	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-6	7	14.4	14.5	-0.10	15.7	16.3	-0.55
Dion Waiters	18	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	0	-5	13.5	14.6	-1.15	15.7	15.9	-0.27
Rodney McGruder	59	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.32	5	-10	15	14.3	14.7	-0.47	16.2	15.4	0.71
Dwyane Wade	55	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-3	1	14.0	15.0	-0.98	16.8	14.6	2.20
Bam Adebayo	51	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	14.9	13.9	1.06	16.2	15.5	0.74
Kelly Olynyk	24	25	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	3	-11	15.0	14.3	0.70	15.6	16.0	-0.33
Justise Winslow	72	71	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.33	-14	9	-23	15.1	12.2	2.92	15.0	18.5	-3.56

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	69	69	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-6	17	15.4	17.1	-1.70	14.9	13.2	1.65
Reggie Bullock	66	67	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.47	9	-4	13	15.7	16.2	-0.51	15.1	12.7	2.43
Luke Kennard	64	64	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-2	9	16.7	14.1	2.61	14.8	13.6	1.17
Blake Griffin	74	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	6	-7	15.8	16.2	-0.45	14.4	14.5	-0.06
Stanley Johnson	44	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.16	3	2	1	16.9	15.0	1.91	14.2	14.6	-0.40
Zaza Pachulia	56	55	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.31	-3	8	-11	15.7	16.2	-0.50	14.9	13.7	1.18
Andre Drummond	16	16	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.10	9	-4	13	14.2	16.2	-1.97	13.4	14.6	-1.27
Ish Smith	3	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	7	-9	18.7	15.8	2.87	14.0	14.4	-0.45
Bruce Brown	35	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.03	-1	6	-7	13.7	17.1	-3.39	13.3	15.0	-1.73
Langston Galloway	25	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	8	-11	17.1	15.4	1.68	13.0	14.9	-1.89
Jose Calderon	23	23	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.12	-4	9	-13	16.9	15.6	1.36	13.1	14.8	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.41,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.55,0.71,1	90.8%
GSW 95, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.95,1	90.7%
PHI 91, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.67,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.59,1	90.7%