NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	6.9 [410]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +28.1%
Utah Jazz	110		Comeback	1.8 [868]		LVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): -9.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.05	0.02	8	53%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	8	69%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	100%	0.21	5	-0.16	3	67%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	8	59%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Ricky Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.03
Mark Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	55%	0.01	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.07
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	20	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	12	50%	-0.08

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.22	0.10	0.03	14	81%	0.28	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Deron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.04	0.03	11	75%	0.22	2	-0.07	10	80%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	14	46%	0.09	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.02
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.03	18	57%	0.16	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	28.2	14.8	29.1	1.6	37.2	140.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +34.0%

UTA +5.6%

UTA +11.3%

UTA +0.5%

MIA -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	16.0	15.1	15.4	109.8	118.3	105.7
season	16.0	15.5		99.0	111.2
opponent	15.0	15.4		105.0	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	15.7	17.6	16.0	16.0
UTA	15.2	16.4	15.1	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	42	39	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.02	10	-19	29	15.6	16.3	-0.72	15.6	14.8	0.88
Mark Blount	10	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-13	17	15.6	16.1	-0.46	16.5	14.9	1.61
Alonzo Mourning	45	44	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-12	15	15.9	16.1	-0.15	15.0	15.2	-0.20
Anfernee Hardaway	27	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-9	9	14.6	16.6	-1.95	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Shaquille O'Neal	41	43	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	1	-11	17.1	15.2	1.92	16.0	14.4	1.58
Dwyane Wade	81	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.23	-11	2	-13	15.9	16.6	-0.71	14.8	17.9	-3.06
Jason Williams	69	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.17	-14	5	-19	16.1	15.7	0.48	14.5	16.9	-2.37
Ricky Davis	61	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.26	-12	3	-15	16.3	15.5	0.75	15.9	13.6	2.23
Udonis Haslem	84	83	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	6	-21	16.0	15.9	0.15	15.0	16.5	-1.54

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	75	75	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-9	27	14.0	19.7	-5.70	16.3	14.8	1.53
Andrei Kirilenko	76	76	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.22	16	-7	23	14.2	19.3	-5.10	16.0	15.9	0.09
Ronnie Brewer	76	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-6	21	14.4	18.2	-3.80	15.4	18.2	-2.86
Carlos Boozer	80	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.19	13	-4	17	14.8	17.4	-2.62	15.7	18.0	-2.32
Mehmet Okur	71	71	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	5	-1	15.3	14.6	0.65	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Jarron Collins	22	21	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	4	1	14.6	15.3	-0.65	16.2	16.0	0.23
Paul Millsap	13	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	13	-17	17.4	14.8	2.62	18.0	15.7	2.32
Gordan Giricek	12	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	13	-17	18.9	14.6	4.35	16.7	15.9	0.83
Matt Harpring	22	22	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.03	-9	18	-27	18.7	14.0	4.65	17.5	15.5	2.02
Jason Hart	18	17	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	18	-27	19.7	14.0	5.70	14.8	16.3	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.6,0.75,0.79,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, BKN 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.46,0.67,0.8,0.93,0.98,1,1	93.4%
NOK 94, MIL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.85,0.95,1,1	92.6%
GSW 106, MIA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.73,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.85,1	92.6%