NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	5.4 [704]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +10.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	74		Comeback	3.7 [531]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -13.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.05	-0.02	15	53%	0.15	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	17	62%	0.12	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	10	38%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brian Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	10	41%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	12	54%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	5	36%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	13	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	15	53%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	18	30%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	27.2	15.5	23.2	1.8	28.4	123.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.9%

ORL +8.1%

ORL +10.5%

ORL +3.2%

ORL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	POR	NBA	ORL	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	16.7	15.4	93.4	82.2	105.7
season	15.1	16.7		109.9	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		106.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	12.1	16.5	17.9	15.2
POR	17.8	17.2	17.8	14.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	30	27	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.20	15	-4	19	16.2	14.7	1.51	17.9	16.2	1.73
Rashard Lewis	79	78	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	15.1	15.4	-0.30	16.2	19.6	-3.35
Maurice Evans	51	50	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	5	1	16.1	14.0	2.10	15.6	18.0	-2.42
Carlos Arroyo	35	34	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	4	3	17.1	13.9	3.19	15.2	17.6	-2.37
Hedo Turkoglu	79	77	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	0	11	15.0	16.0	-0.97	16.7	16.3	0.43
Keith Bogans	59	59	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.09	2	9	-7	14.4	16.6	-2.17	17.5	15.1	2.46
Jameer Nelson	56	56	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	7	-3	13.9	17.1	-3.19	17.6	15.2	2.37
Brian Cook	4	4	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	8	-5	19.5	15.0	4.55	24.7	16.3	8.45
JJ Redick	1	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	11	-11	9.0	15.2	-6.22	17.5	16.7	0.84
Dwight Howard	61	63	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.03	-4	15	-19	14.7	16.2	-1.51	16.2	17.9	-1.73

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	63	62	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.11	0	-11	11	16.5	17.1	-0.67	14.6	16.3	-1.75
Steve Blake	59	61	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-12	13	16.8	16.4	0.44	14.5	16.6	-2.11
Martell Webster	74	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-14	17	16.4	17.9	-1.53	15.3	14.4	0.98
LaMarcus Aldridge	48	51	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-1	-9	17.7	15.5	2.12	15.9	14.2	1.75
Sergio Rodriguez	22	22	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	0	-11	18.0	16.3	1.69	16.3	14.8	1.48
Channing Frye	15	16	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	18.4	16.3	2.07	15.4	15.1	0.27
Brandon Roy	74	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	0	-11	16.2	18.7	-2.52	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Travis Outlaw	54	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-8	5	15.6	18.4	-2.81	15.0	15.4	-0.37
Jarrett Jack	41	40	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	4	-19	17.1	16.3	0.73	15.5	14.8	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 110, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
CHI 116, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
SEA 99, MIL 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.73,0.6,0.56,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%