NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	105		Excitement	8.5 [162]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +35.5%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	2.5 [966]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -28.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.36,0.36	0.11	0.26	0.01	13	77%	0.46	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.02
Hakim Warrick	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	10	71%	0.20	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01	-0.08	0.08	-0.01	12	35%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	-0.04	0.03	8	70%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Kyle Lowry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	5	70%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.06	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29	-0.09	-0.16	0.03	18	38%	-0.09	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.04,0.31	0.31	-0.03	0.34	-0.00	13	52%	0.42	4	-0.11	14	64%	0.08
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	23	57%	0.14	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	11	45%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	69%	0.10	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ager	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	41%	0.00	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	12	53%	0.04	3	-0.12	12	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.6	27.0	15.8	29.0	2.5	35.8	136.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +10.6%

MEM -2.9%

DAL +11.2%

DAL +29.2%

DAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DAL	NBA	MEM	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	13.8	15.4	102.9	105.9	105.7
season	14.9	16.1		103.3	108.9
opponent	15.4	14.9		105.0	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	12.8	14.9	15.6	14.5	14.4
DAL	13.9	13.9	11.7	16.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Casey Jacobsen	11	13	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.05	7	-10	17	14.5	14.4	0.16	15.2	13.6	1.51
Tarence Kinsey	29	30	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-4	5	15.0	14.2	0.79	14.5	13.6	0.94
Stromile Swift	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-4	5	12.8	15.4	-2.55	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Damon Stoudamire	32	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-2	1	14.4	14.4	0.01	15.1	13.3	1.84
Mike Conley	12	12	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	2	-7	10.7	14.9	-4.23	12.2	14.1	-1.89
Mike Miller	80	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-5	7	13.6	17.3	-3.72	13.6	14.6	-0.97
Hakim Warrick	57	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-1	-1	14.8	13.9	0.92	13.7	14.0	-0.38
Kyle Lowry	57	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-6	9	15.3	13.3	2.03	13.5	14.3	-0.81
Juan Carlos Navarro	67	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	14.5	14.3	0.18	13.9	13.8	0.05
Pau Gasol	72	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.32	-6	3	-9	14.7	13.8	0.85	13.4	14.9	-1.52
Rudy Gay	53	51	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.38	-13	10	-23	15.5	13.2	2.23	14.3	13.4	0.92

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	87	87	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-10	23	13.9	13.3	0.66	14.4	14.6	-0.23
DeSagana Diop	66	66	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.32	13	-10	23	13.9	13.7	0.26	14.7	13.8	0.88
Jason Terry	59	59	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-8	19	13.4	14.5	-1.13	14.1	14.8	-0.67
Dirk Nowitzki	67	68	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-8	19	14.6	12.5	2.10	15.3	12.6	2.63
Devin Harris	70	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	6	-9	14.6	12.1	2.58	15.7	11.3	4.42
Maurice Ager	28	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.01	3	0	3	12.7	14.3	-1.59	15.2	14.1	1.07
Jerry Stackhouse	50	51	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	9	-15	13.2	14.5	-1.32	12.3	16.5	-4.14
Erick Dampier	28	27	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	8	-13	12.6	14.3	-1.74	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Trenton Hassell	13	11	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	12	-21	15.2	13.6	1.51	14.5	14.4	0.16
Brandon Bass	42	42	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.09	-13	16	-29	13.7	13.9	-0.28	12.8	15.5	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.84,1	92.6%
DAL 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,1	92.5%
HOU 84, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	92.2%