NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	84		Excitement	7.2 [396]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +24.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	90		Comeback	2.1 [557]		LVP	Yao Ming (HOU): -41.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.09	-0.01	10	80%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	8	81%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01	0.00	-0.06	-0.05	16	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vassilis Spanoulis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.10	0.01	6	57%	-0.03	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28	-0.23	-0.08	-0.03	21	29%	-0.19	5	-0.09	6	67%	-0.00
Yao Ming	-0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.32,-0.37,-0.37,-0.41,-0.41	-0.24	-0.17	-0.00	19	33%	-0.15	7	-0.26	5	80%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.11	0.02	12	67%	0.22	0	0.00	12	83%	0.06
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	14	66%	0.17	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	4	40%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	13	46%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.03	7	29%	-0.07	4	-0.10	7	57%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	27.6	15.6	26.2	1.7	33.2	132.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +38.5%

MIN +9.7%

HOU -18.3%

MIN +18.0%

MIN +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIN	NBA	HOU	MIN	NBA
this game	16.0	14.0	15.4	88.4	92.8	104.5
season	15.6	15.4		103.6	101.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		105.8	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.3	19.0	15.8	13.2	16.0
MIN	13.2	13.7	13.5	15.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	7	8	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-9	12	17.3	15.9	1.38	12.7	14.1	-1.37
Juwan Howard	49	49	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-8	10	16.2	15.8	0.44	15.0	13.0	1.92
Vassilis Spanoulis	11	11	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-7	8	20.2	15.5	4.72	16.0	13.8	2.24
Shane Battier	74	76	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-8	10	16.3	15.0	1.24	14.2	13.3	0.92
Rafer Alston	81	84	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-7	8	15.4	19.6	-4.18	13.9	15.0	-1.14
Yao Ming	81	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-3	0	15.8	17.0	-1.16	14.4	11.9	2.52
Luther Head	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	0	-6	15.1	17.2	-2.12	14.1	14.0	0.10
Charles Hayes	43	44	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	10	-26	17.2	15.0	2.23	12.7	15.1	-2.31
Tracy McGrady	76	76	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.39	-14	8	-22	15.7	17.3	-1.63	13.5	15.8	-2.30

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	74	73	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.43	12	-6	18	13.5	15.6	-2.10	15.7	17.0	-1.23
Troy Hudson	48	46	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-9	24	13.6	14.4	-0.89	15.2	16.8	-1.58
Mike James	76	73	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	0	6	14.1	13.7	0.44	15.8	16.7	-0.93
Marko Jaric	38	35	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	3	0	15.4	13.1	2.36	15.7	16.2	-0.51
Mark Blount	56	54	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	8	-10	15.4	12.1	3.31	16.9	14.8	2.08
Ricky Davis	68	69	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	2	2	13.7	14.7	-1.02	16.9	13.6	3.30
Trenton Hassell	56	57	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.18	-5	11	-16	13.0	15.3	-2.31	15.0	17.5	-2.53
Justin Reed	3	4	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	5	-4	10.0	14.1	-4.14	9.7	16.3	-6.54
Mark Madsen	8	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	5	-4	12.5	14.1	-1.65	17.6	15.9	1.76
Craig Smith	36	36	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.15	5	1	4	13.6	14.3	-0.72	16.9	15.4	1.50
Randy Foye	13	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	10	-14	14.5	13.9	0.61	16.8	15.9	0.97
Eddie Griffin	9	7	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.12	-6	12	-18	17.0	13.7	3.30	16.0	16.0	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.6%
GSW 112, HOU 131	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.68,0.81,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1	93.1%
MEM 105, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.74,1	92.2%