NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	106		Excitement	8.0 [221]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +55.4%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	4.6 [488]		LVP	Leandro Barbosa (PHX): -23.0%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.55	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.49,0.56,0.55	0.19	0.37	0.01	16	88%	0.63	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.01	11	73%	0.28	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Shawn Marion	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.02	16	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	11	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	0.00	18	45%	-0.13	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.02	0.02	16	66%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	17	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	17	56%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.03	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.07
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	7	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.04	-0.13	0.02	19	57%	0.01	3	-0.12	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	30.3	16.5	25.5	2.4	31.4	134.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +56.3%

MIA -5.9%

MIA -3.8%

PHX +4.7%

MIA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	12.2	17.6	15.4	108.2	105.2	105.7
season	13.8	16.0		111.1	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	10.2	13.3	12.3	13.4	12.2
MIA	15.5	18.0	17.2	20.3	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	64	62	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.36	11	-6	17	12.5	11.6	0.93	18.0	16.8	1.22
Grant Hill	78	75	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	-6	17	11.7	13.9	-2.24	17.6	17.4	0.20
Shawn Marion	94	91	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	1	3	12.0	15.0	-2.96	17.3	22.8	-5.50
Steve Nash	73	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	4	-3	12.1	12.3	-0.21	17.1	19.1	-2.06
Boris Diaw	57	57	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	3	-1	12.7	11.4	1.33	18.9	15.6	3.31
Amar'e Stoudemire	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.05	7	-2	9	11.6	12.5	-0.87	16.7	18.1	-1.43
Brian Skinner	15	15	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.01	-7	12	-19	10.1	12.5	-2.48	15.5	18.0	-2.43
Raja Bell	72	71	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	9	-13	12.9	10.2	2.63	17.9	16.8	1.06

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	22	24	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-9	13	17.0	17.8	-0.76	12.7	12.0	0.78
Dorell Wright	27	25	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.10	0	-5	5	19.7	16.7	3.00	12.0	12.2	-0.27
Anfernee Hardaway	43	46	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-7	9	15.9	18.9	-2.99	12.4	11.9	0.47
Jason Williams	89	91	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	0	-5	17.5	18.6	-1.07	12.3	10.4	1.87
Shaquille O'Neal	72	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	2	-9	17.7	17.3	0.33	12.1	12.2	-0.08
Udonis Haslem	84	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	-2	-1	17.2	20.2	-2.95	11.9	14.5	-2.68
Smush Parker	55	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	3	-11	18.9	15.8	3.10	11.9	12.4	-0.50
Ricky Davis	88	91	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	3	-11	17.4	19.5	-2.09	12.2	11.1	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.4,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.61,0.7,0.22,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 106, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.34,0.17,0	91.6%
TOR 107, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.04,0	90.8%
BOS 101, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.67,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.87,0.89,0.72,0.57,0.09,0	90.2%