NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	8.2 [193]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +10.5%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	1.1 [699]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -19.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.06	0.19	-0.15	-0.02	24	61%	0.06	0	0.00	11	82%	0.02
Jarvis Hayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.07	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	3	42%	0.02	2	-0.11	6	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	12	54%	0.09	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.2	-0.03	-0.15	0.02	17	46%	-0.14	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.02	8	56%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	16	50%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	11	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.02	12	66%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	0	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	50%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	35%	-0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.12	-0.00	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.17	6	83%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	11	33%	-0.07	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.5	32.4	19.6	28.2	2.8	41.0	152.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +17.1%

DET -0.1%

CHI +15.7%

CHI +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	15.0	15.3	15.4	97.9	102.1	105.7
season	16.8	15.0		108.8	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.8		105.4	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.8	14.4	15.1	16.7	15.0
CHI	16.8	15.0	13.7	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	7	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-2	0	17.0	14.8	2.17	11.0	15.7	-4.72
Antonio McDyess	73	74	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-5	6	15.0	15.0	-0.07	15.7	14.0	1.64
Jason Maxiell	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-3	2	17.3	14.3	3.03	15.9	15.2	0.76
Ronald Murray	22	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	0	-4	14.8	15.1	-0.28	16.0	15.1	0.93
Nazr Mohammed	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	1	-6	14.2	15.1	-0.81	13.7	15.5	-1.72
Richard Hamilton	71	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-4	4	14.6	16.0	-1.41	16.0	13.5	2.51
Rasheed Wallace	82	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-5	6	15.0	14.6	0.43	15.4	14.6	0.82
Chauncey Billups	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-4	4	15.1	14.8	0.28	15.1	16.0	-0.93
Jarvis Hayes	42	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.23	-6	2	-8	15.1	14.9	0.19	15.0	15.6	-0.62
Tayshaun Prince	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	0	-4	14.4	17.1	-2.67	14.9	17.0	-2.12

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	45	43	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.35	10	-6	16	15.0	15.7	-0.70	15.9	14.2	1.68
Kirk Hinrich	84	84	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.41	0	4	-4	15.4	15.1	0.27	15.2	13.7	1.43
Luol Deng	65	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	1	2	15.4	15.1	0.38	14.1	16.9	-2.74
Chris Duhon	55	53	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	-5	14	14.3	16.7	-2.33	13.2	17.2	-4.03
Tyrus Thomas	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.34	-2	6	-8	15.7	14.3	1.38	14.5	16.7	-2.19
Ben Gordon	51	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	5	-6	16.3	14.2	2.17	16.5	13.1	3.44
Joakim Noah	24	23	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	-2	8	14.3	15.7	-1.38	16.7	14.5	2.19
Andres Nocioni	32	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	1	2	14.8	15.6	-0.73	15.8	14.6	1.22
Ben Wallace	48	49	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	12	-20	15.8	14.8	1.02	14.8	15.2	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.81,0.69,0.6,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 83, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.85,1	92.8%
OKC 90, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	92.2%
SAC 101, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.81,0.96,0.9,0.95,1	92.1%