NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	9.1 [103]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +37.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	101		Comeback	2.8 [585]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -18.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.38	0.19	0.19	0.00	14	71%	0.38	1	-0.00	14	93%	0.08
Fabricio Oberto	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Brent Barry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0	0.06	-0.06	0.00	9	61%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Washington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.09	0.02	15	47%	-0.04	1	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.11	0.02	20	42%	-0.09	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.03	-0.01	14	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.04	-0.01	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.15	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.15,0.15,-0.1	-0.10	0.09	-0.18	0.02	16	59%	-0.08	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	15	48%	0.07	3	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.4	29.5	16.5	24.4	2.5	38.4	142.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.0%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +15.2%

SAS +21.5%

MEM -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	13.7	15.4	107.2	103.1	105.7
season	16.5	14.9		104.7	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.3		109.9	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.8	17.3	16.1	15.4	15.9
MEM	11.9	14.6	15.9	12.9	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	61	61	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-1	5	15.9	15.9	0.04	14.0	13.1	0.89
Matt Bonner	35	35	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	0	3	17.9	14.8	3.13	14.5	13.2	1.28
Brent Barry	33	35	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.03	13	-10	23	15.9	15.9	0.03	12.8	14.2	-1.39
Tony Parker	73	75	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	5	-7	16.4	14.3	2.12	13.7	13.4	0.36
Fabricio Oberto	33	36	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	-4	11	14.0	16.9	-2.91	14.8	13.0	1.85
Michael Finley	53	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	1	1	15.7	16.2	-0.50	12.5	15.1	-2.63
Darius Washington	24	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-2	7	14.3	16.4	-2.12	13.4	13.7	-0.36
Francisco Elson	44	44	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	-3	9	16.0	15.8	0.29	13.7	13.7	-0.01
Tim Duncan	73	71	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.35	-12	15	-27	16.3	14.6	1.73	13.4	14.3	-0.92
Bruce Bowen	56	55	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.30	-11	14	-25	15.3	16.7	-1.46	14.1	13.2	0.89

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	56	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-4	5	14.4	12.7	1.66	15.8	16.0	-0.24
Juan Carlos Navarro	33	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-4	5	12.0	14.5	-2.51	18.6	14.4	4.20
Rudy Gay	57	57	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.34	7	-10	17	13.8	13.4	0.39	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Damon Stoudamire	61	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.29	5	-8	13	14.2	12.8	1.46	16.2	15.4	0.84
Hakim Warrick	22	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	5	-13	12.5	14.0	-1.56	16.0	15.8	0.21
Mike Miller	73	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-7	11	14.3	11.8	2.56	15.7	16.5	-0.87
Casey Jacobsen	35	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	4	-11	11.6	14.8	-3.21	13.7	17.0	-3.31
Pau Gasol	83	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.46	2	-5	7	13.5	14.7	-1.18	15.9	15.6	0.31
Stromile Swift	26	24	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	6	-15	15.3	13.1	2.19	16.3	15.7	0.59
Kyle Lowry	44	43	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.09	-11	8	-19	13.6	13.7	-0.13	15.4	16.3	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.67,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, NOH 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.36,0.55,0.43,0	91.2%
NJN 89, LAL 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.65,0.77,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.58,0	90.1%
WAS 95, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.59,0	89.9%