NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	68		Excitement	3.7 [1073]		MVP	Grant Hill (ORL): +12.1%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	1.2 [1247]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -14.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Simien	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Quinn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.01	0.06	9	74%	0.02	5	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Earl Barron	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	7	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	35%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.04	7	14%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	11	63%	0.12	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	15	43%	0.01	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	8	60%	0.04	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	5	31%	-0.02	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.09	-0.01	0.12	5	83%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	29.4	17.5	27.6	2.8	26.5	131.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +12.2%

MIA -1.7%

ORL +20.1%

ORL +18.8%

ORL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.8	16.1	15.4	80.0	110.6	104.5
season	16.0	15.9		102.4	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.0	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	16.0	19.6	17.8	17.8
ORL	14.0	16.8	16.4	17.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Simien	43	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.27	-10	-16	6	17.5	18.0	-0.54	17.1	15.1	2.00
Dorell Wright	61	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.24	-9	-17	8	16.8	20.2	-3.33	17.3	13.0	4.33
Michael Doleac	25	26	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.18	-9	-17	8	18.3	17.6	0.71	16.2	16.1	0.07
Chris Quinn	30	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-21	16	17.0	18.2	-1.25	16.7	15.8	0.97
Earl Barron	18	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-21	16	16.8	18.0	-1.27	19.1	15.3	3.80
Antoine Walker	54	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	-12	-2	18.4	16.7	1.73	14.5	18.6	-4.09
Alonzo Mourning	36	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	-14	2	18.2	17.4	0.77	14.5	17.2	-2.66
Gary Payton	65	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.20	-21	-5	-16	17.8	17.8	-0.10	15.9	16.8	-0.87
Udonis Haslem	38	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	-10	-6	18.5	17.2	1.26	14.8	17.1	-2.39
Jason Kapono	55	57	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	0.15	-29	3	-32	18.2	17.0	1.20	16.2	15.8	0.42

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	49	48	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.13	25	1	24	15.1	17.4	-2.32	18.9	16.4	2.52
Hedo Turkoglu	50	50	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.00	20	6	14	16.7	15.3	1.44	18.1	17.3	0.79
Grant Hill	48	48	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.00	14	12	2	14.4	18.3	-3.83	18.2	17.2	0.99
Tony Battie	47	47	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.02	14	12	2	14.3	18.3	-3.95	18.2	17.3	0.93
Jameer Nelson	48	48	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	12	2	14.6	18.0	-3.35	18.4	17.0	1.33
Carlos Arroyo	37	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.24	12	14	-2	18.0	14.6	3.35	17.0	18.4	-1.33
Keith Bogans	12	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	21	-16	18.2	15.8	2.40	14.2	18.3	-4.13
Keyon Dooling	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.20	10	16	-6	17.5	15.4	2.14	17.8	17.8	0.03
Pat Garrity	13	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	25	-24	20.3	15.3	4.96	14.9	18.4	-3.45
Trevor Ariza	33	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.21	6	20	-14	15.7	16.4	-0.72	17.7	17.8	-0.17
Bo Outlaw	41	39	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.19	5	21	-16	17.2	15.0	2.20	17.1	18.3	-1.20
JJ Redick	18	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.19	4	22	-18	17.7	15.7	2.05	17.8	17.8	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.88,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 71, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.2%
NYK 83, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
DAL 86, GSW 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%