NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	86		Excitement	7.8 [289]		MVP	Devin Harris (DAL): +9.5%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	4.5 [240]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -22.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fabricio Oberto	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	12	55%	0.08	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	21	49%	0.10	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,-0.08	0.03	-0.11	-0.00	13	53%	0.10	1	-0.17	4	100%	0.04
Bruce Bowen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09	0.01	-0.10	0.00	5	50%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	5	40%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.02	0.02	13	62%	0.09	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.12,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	21	50%	0.14	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	11	54%	0.10	3	-0.09	4	50%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	11	32%	-0.15	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	30.1	17.8	27.4	3.0	37.0	146.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +19.0%

DAL +3.7%

DAL +7.7%

DAL +21.7%

SAS -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.4	95.6	101.1	104.5
season	16.2	16.3		107.5	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		102.3	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	15.8	18.8	17.5	16.8
DAL	17.5	12.5	15.5	15.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	52	53	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-12	19	16.3	17.4	-1.18	15.7	14.6	1.08
Robert Horry	18	19	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-10	15	14.3	17.4	-3.04	16.6	14.9	1.71
Brent Barry	33	33	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-2	-1	16.3	17.0	-0.68	14.0	16.0	-2.00
Fabricio Oberto	32	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	0	-5	17.3	16.5	0.85	14.6	15.6	-0.99
Tony Parker	70	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-7	9	16.9	16.3	0.54	15.8	13.2	2.55
Jacque Vaughn	20	20	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	2	-9	16.3	16.9	-0.54	13.2	15.8	-2.55
Bruce Bowen	58	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-6	7	17.1	16.2	0.85	15.9	14.1	1.80
Francisco Elson	62	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.23	-11	6	-17	17.3	15.5	1.84	14.8	16.1	-1.28
Manu Ginobili	53	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.51	-2	-3	1	16.6	17.0	-0.35	14.6	16.2	-1.60
Michael Finley	52	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	7	-19	17.2	16.2	0.96	15.9	14.3	1.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	24	22	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.56	3	2	1	16.1	14.9	1.16	16.6	16.8	-0.17
Josh Howard	69	71	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-5	15	15.0	16.1	-1.12	16.7	16.9	-0.16
Devin Harris	59	60	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	3	-1	15.0	15.6	-0.63	16.8	16.7	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	70	69	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	3	-1	15.5	14.1	1.39	16.6	17.4	-0.86
Devean George	35	38	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	3	-1	16.2	14.6	1.58	15.7	17.5	-1.83
Austin Croshere	24	23	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	-4	13	12.3	16.3	-3.95	17.3	16.6	0.78
Jason Terry	60	59	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.24	8	-3	11	14.8	16.1	-1.25	17.2	15.9	1.32
Jerry Stackhouse	49	48	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	8	-11	14.8	15.7	-0.87	15.8	17.9	-2.13
DeSagana Diop	61	62	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	11	-17	16.1	13.4	2.74	17.5	15.2	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.24,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.42,1	92.1%
SAC 117, IND 122	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.27,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.58,1	91.6%
VAN 85, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.11,0.42,1	91.0%