NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	5.9 [659]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +23.0%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	1.1 [1054]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -15.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.06	0.04	12	85%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	61%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	2	125%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01	0.03	-0.05	0.00	14	52%	0.00	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Darko Milicic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	0.03	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.01	12	30%	-0.12	2	-0.04	16	37%	-0.12

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.00	11	71%	0.24	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.22	0.22	0.21	0.06	0.04	13	90%	0.34	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	9	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	21	48%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.4	29.5	18.6	26.2	3.5	36.2	144.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +49.1%

ORL -1.5%

ORL -7.7%

DET +5.4%

DET +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	17.7	15.4	117.9	120.9	104.5
season	15.9	16.8		103.4	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.7		101.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	16.5	15.5	17.1	16.2
DET	16.4	17.0	18.8	18.9	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	36	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-10	15	17.1	15.4	1.67	18.8	17.0	1.75
Keyon Dooling	33	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-12	19	16.5	15.9	0.54	17.4	17.9	-0.43
JJ Redick	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-5	5	17.5	15.9	1.60	17.5	17.8	-0.29
Trevor Ariza	41	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.39	9	-14	23	16.8	15.6	1.22	17.9	17.5	0.38
Tony Battie	47	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	3	-11	15.5	17.0	-1.46	17.1	18.5	-1.41
Jameer Nelson	58	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	2	-9	16.2	16.1	0.06	18.3	16.4	1.90
Grant Hill	62	64	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	5	-15	15.6	17.6	-1.95	17.4	18.7	-1.31
Hedo Turkoglu	56	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	6	-17	15.2	18.0	-2.71	17.2	18.9	-1.67
Dwight Howard	72	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	5	-15	16.4	14.4	2.03	17.9	16.5	1.47

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	65	63	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-8	21	17.2	19.1	-1.90	15.9	16.9	-1.00
Tayshaun Prince	70	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-4	13	17.6	18.2	-0.59	16.0	17.1	-1.11
Richard Hamilton	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.32	5	0	5	17.9	16.0	1.93	16.3	14.9	1.42
Antonio McDyess	48	48	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-2	9	17.4	18.1	-0.66	16.9	15.1	1.78
Chris Webber	41	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	-4	13	17.5	17.9	-0.33	16.2	16.1	0.09
Rasheed Wallace	43	41	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.35	-5	10	-15	17.8	17.6	0.16	15.0	17.3	-2.35
Jason Maxiell	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	3	-1	17.1	17.8	-0.73	17.5	15.9	1.57
Dale Davis	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	6	-7	19.0	17.1	1.91	16.2	16.1	0.11
Lindsey Hunter	10	10	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	5	-5	16.0	17.9	-1.93	14.9	16.3	-1.42
Carlos Delfino	18	16	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	11	-17	17.6	17.7	-0.12	16.6	16.1	0.50
Ronald Murray	21	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	13	-21	19.1	17.2	1.90	16.9	15.9	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.8,0.85,0.76,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 87, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.84,1	93.0%
SAS 103, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.93,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%
WAS 89, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.74,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.73,1	92.3%