NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	82		Excitement	8.4 [215]		MVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): +10.9%
Miami Heat	85		Comeback	2.4 [720]		LVP	Darius Songaila (WAS): -17.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarvis Hayes	0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	9	72%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	0.00	7	56%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brendan Haywood	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	11	54%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0,0,0	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	8	39%	0.12	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calvin Booth	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	35%	0.06	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Donell Taylor	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	11	36%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.09	0.00	5	75%	0.18	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.01	15	54%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21,0.12,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	10	45%	0.12	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	11	57%	0.14	7	-0.23	6	67%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	27.5	15.8	24.2	2.7	32.5	126.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.0%

MIA +5.0%

WAS -14.6%

MIA +6.7%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	17.6	15.0	15.4	92.1	96.6	104.5
season	14.8	16.0		107.8	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.9	17.4	18.1	16.9	17.6
MIA	14.9	15.3	15.3	14.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donell Taylor	49	46	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.10	13	-16	29	16.5	18.8	-2.34	15.1	14.9	0.21
Roger Mason Jr.	37	36	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.06	9	-12	21	16.5	18.3	-1.79	15.2	14.8	0.39
Brendan Haywood	41	39	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.07	9	-12	21	17.1	18.0	-0.86	15.5	14.5	0.98
Calvin Booth	9	10	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.02	3	-6	9	14.8	17.9	-3.10	13.4	15.2	-1.77
Andray Blatche	43	42	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.11	7	-10	17	17.7	17.4	0.26	14.8	15.1	-0.30
Darius Songaila	47	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-9	15	16.9	18.3	-1.33	15.0	14.9	0.16
Etan Thomas	31	31	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.10	-11	8	-19	18.9	16.9	2.01	15.2	14.8	0.40
Jarvis Hayes	52	52	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.36	-10	7	-17	17.9	17.1	0.82	14.9	15.1	-0.25
Antawn Jamison	52	51	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.35	-12	9	-21	17.7	17.4	0.22	15.1	14.8	0.27
Antonio Daniels	40	42	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.31	-16	13	-29	18.8	16.5	2.34	14.9	15.1	-0.21
DeShawn Stevenson	44	44	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.42	-13	10	-23	18.5	16.6	1.95	14.5	15.4	-0.89

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	64	63	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.51	11	-8	19	14.8	15.4	-0.56	18.6	15.1	3.46
Eddie Jones	50	51	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.46	12	-9	21	15.2	14.6	0.63	18.5	16.4	2.08
Dwyane Wade	63	64	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-3	9	14.5	16.0	-1.50	17.7	17.2	0.45
Jason Kapono	49	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.46	-6	9	-15	15.3	14.5	0.77	16.8	18.6	-1.83
Alonzo Mourning	43	43	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	0	3	15.2	14.7	0.52	18.3	16.9	1.34
Jason Williams	58	59	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-6	15	15.2	14.5	0.66	17.6	17.5	0.09
Michael Doleac	44	46	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	3	-3	15.0	14.9	0.11	16.9	18.3	-1.34
Chris Quinn	6	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	5	-7	16.2	14.9	1.29	17.4	17.6	-0.17
James Posey	21	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	11	-19	14.7	15.0	-0.33	16.8	17.8	-0.99
Earl Barron	12	12	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.13	-3	6	-9	13.2	15.2	-1.99	16.2	17.8	-1.61
Dorell Wright	30	30	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.09	-7	10	-17	14.9	15.0	-0.10	16.1	18.3	-2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.44,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.6,0.38,0.46,0.77,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 84, PHX 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.54,0.29,0.45,0.37,0.68,0.92,1	91.8%
MIN 97, BOS 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.37,0.75,0.73,1	91.7%
MIA 74, NYK 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.68,0.69,1	90.9%