NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	7.6 [334]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +19.5%
Sacramento Kings	93		Comeback	2.6 [718]		LVP	John Salmons (SAC): -15.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2	0.10	0.10	0.00	20	61%	0.25	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Josh Howard	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	0.01	21	57%	0.24	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.09
Jerry Stackhouse	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.05,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.13	0.03	0.12	0.02	20	52%	0.18	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	30%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Devin Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	6	75%	0.06	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.08	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	35%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.04
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	52%	0.04	3	-0.09	15	73%	-0.03
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.02	-0.13	0.02	20	53%	-0.04	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.06	0.04	9	39%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.0	30.2	15.5	28.3	2.6	41.3	145.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +53.7%

DAL +14.0%

SAC -11.4%

SAC -1.0%

SAC -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.4	103.2	100.0	104.5
season	16.3	14.7		108.7	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.3	16.4	14.5	17.7	16.2
SAC	13.1	15.5	14.9	15.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	62	61	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.29	16	-12	28	15.8	17.0	-1.23	14.9	14.0	0.92
Greg Buckner	42	41	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-6	16	16.1	16.2	-0.13	15.3	14.0	1.28
Erick Dampier	40	39	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	4	-4	17.1	15.5	1.54	15.9	13.6	2.32
Jason Terry	85	83	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	2	0	16.5	13.0	3.53	14.4	16.1	-1.68
Josh Howard	77	78	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.47	-5	9	-14	16.9	13.1	3.82	14.5	15.1	-0.55
Devin Harris	45	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	4	-4	15.2	17.1	-1.90	13.3	15.9	-2.61
DeSagana Diop	48	48	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	16.0	16.4	-0.35	14.5	14.8	-0.30
Austin Croshere	5	3	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.09	5	-1	6	7.6	16.7	-9.07	19.3	14.4	4.89
Devean George	66	66	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.10	-11	15	-26	16.3	15.9	0.37	14.2	15.6	-1.34

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	43	44	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.08	7	-11	18	14.2	14.9	-0.69	15.7	16.6	-0.87
Mike Bibby	71	72	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.36	16	-20	36	13.4	18.5	-5.05	16.4	15.5	0.84
Kevin Martin	65	67	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.43	18	-22	40	13.9	16.3	-2.46	16.9	14.4	2.45
Ronnie Price	14	13	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.10	-12	8	-20	14.7	14.6	0.13	11.8	16.9	-5.13
Metta World Peace	83	84	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-9	14	14.2	18.2	-4.03	16.4	14.6	1.78
Kenny Thomas	43	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	9	-22	15.1	14.1	1.00	15.4	16.8	-1.42
Brad Miller	72	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-5	6	15.3	12.0	3.30	17.1	13.1	3.99
Francisco Garcia	23	22	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	0.01	-23	19	-42	18.1	13.5	4.63	14.8	16.6	-1.79
John Salmons	51	53	-0.90	0.40	-1.29	-0.34	-19	15	-34	15.1	14.0	1.14	16.2	16.2	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, WAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.01,0	93.1%
POR 87, CHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0	92.1%
NOH 75, CHA 67	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.32,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.16,0	91.9%