NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	108		Excitement	6.6 [459]		MVP	Terry Davis (WAS): +15.2%
Washington Wizards	98		Comeback	2.2 [276]		LVP	Harvey Grant (WAS): -16.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elliot Perry	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	11	64%	0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	19	58%	0.09	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	16	62%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	10	58%	0.12	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Armen Gilliam	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	50%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Litterial Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	-0.00	8	82%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Lawrence Moten	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	4	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	19	61%	0.14	5	-0.18	16	75%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	18	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	15	47%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	13	36%	-0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	26.0	14.8	25.0	1.6	37.5	130.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.7%

MIL +3.1%

MIL +1.5%

WAS -5.5%

MIL +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.5	14.4	15.6	118.7	102.1	102.5
season	16.0	15.1		101.1	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.1		102.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.5	17.0	16.5	15.9	16.5
WAS	15.6	13.7	15.5	12.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	74	79	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.08	22	-12	34	15.7	19.8	-4.12	14.9	12.1	2.76
Ervin Johnson	65	70	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.17	14	-4	18	15.9	18.0	-2.08	15.6	11.1	4.48
Glenn Robinson	86	90	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	1	8	16.3	19.8	-3.52	14.3	15.7	-1.37
Tyrone Hill	71	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	3	4	16.6	16.1	0.41	14.4	14.4	0.01
Michael Curry	47	48	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.35	-2	12	-14	17.7	15.1	2.59	13.0	15.8	-2.81
Elliot Perry	68	72	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.06	9	1	8	16.4	16.7	-0.36	14.1	15.2	-1.10
Armen Gilliam	25	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	10	-10	17.0	16.3	0.78	14.0	14.5	-0.53
Andrew Lang	15	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	14	-18	17.9	16.2	1.67	12.6	14.7	-2.12
Litterial Green	4	5	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	15	-20	21.0	16.3	4.74	16.0	14.3	1.70

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Moten	3	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-6	2	6.7	14.6	-7.97	12.0	16.6	-4.57
Chris Whitney	11	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	-2	-6	11.3	14.8	-3.52	15.1	16.7	-1.57
Terry Davis	71	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-14	18	15.1	12.3	2.85	16.6	16.2	0.36
Calbert Cheaney	86	84	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-13	16	14.5	13.4	1.10	16.6	15.4	1.13
Darvin Ham	19	19	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	2	-14	15.6	14.1	1.55	15.7	16.7	-1.00
Ben Wallace	51	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	2	-14	15.2	13.5	1.69	15.9	17.1	-1.18
Rod Strickland	92	87	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-5	0	14.2	18.5	-4.29	16.7	12.5	4.16
Tracy Murray	84	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	-3	-4	14.3	15.2	-0.99	16.7	15.3	1.40
Harvey Grant	63	62	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	-1	-8	13.7	15.7	-1.95	16.8	15.8	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, VAN 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.1,0,0	93.7%
DAL 97, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.07,0	93.1%
CHI 113, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.55,0.7,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.1%