NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	100		Excitement	7.9 [282]		MVP	Nick Collison (SEA): +13.6%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.7 [167]		LVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): -20.3%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	10	73%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rashard Lewis	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	21	62%	0.22	4	-0.11	11	73%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	8	67%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Gelabale	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.10	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andre Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	9	65%	0.13	0	0.00	8	87%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	22	56%	0.22	5	-0.23	6	67%	-0.04
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	12	35%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.13	0.00	11	44%	-0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Allen Iverson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	13	41%	-0.10	5	-0.11	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	26.4	15.5	27.4	1.6	34.0	133.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +72.6%

DEN -3.4%

SEA +19.5%

DEN -34.9%

DEN -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DEN	NBA	SEA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.4	106.4	102.1	104.5
season	15.4	14.0		105.5	105.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		104.5	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.0	15.7	14.6	17.6	15.7
DEN	14.4	17.0	13.6	14.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	65	65	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.44	17	-14	31	15.9	15.1	0.80	15.5	13.4	2.08
Mickael Gelabale	47	47	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-7	17	16.0	15.4	0.60	15.2	14.5	0.69
Chris Wilcox	65	67	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-8	19	16.1	14.7	1.45	14.5	15.6	-1.06
Nick Collison	82	84	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	2	-1	15.8	14.8	0.95	14.8	14.7	0.11
Rashard Lewis	73	73	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.46	-9	12	-21	16.2	13.6	2.63	14.4	16.4	-2.01
Damien Wilkins	60	62	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-2	7	14.5	17.6	-3.07	15.5	13.6	1.82
Johan Petro	37	35	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	2	-1	14.6	16.4	-1.76	15.0	14.7	0.33
Andre Brown	3	3	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	8	-13	13.0	15.7	-2.75	21.0	14.6	6.38
Luke Ridnour	38	39	-0.49	0.99	-1.49	-0.03	-16	19	-35	15.7	15.6	0.09	13.0	16.1	-3.05

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Evans	41	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-4	5	15.6	14.2	1.34	14.9	16.2	-1.30
Nene	69	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.41	9	-12	21	15.0	14.4	0.60	16.2	14.2	1.99
Carmelo Anthony	76	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-11	19	14.5	16.3	-1.80	16.2	13.6	2.62
Steve Blake	58	55	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-4	5	15.7	13.5	2.19	15.3	16.1	-0.76
J.R. Smith	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	2	-7	14.7	14.9	-0.17	15.4	15.9	-0.52
Linas Kleiza	51	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	2	-7	15.6	13.9	1.66	15.6	15.7	-0.04
Allen Iverson	74	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	1	-5	14.3	16.8	-2.55	15.6	15.9	-0.29
Marcus Camby	66	65	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.18	-20	17	-37	13.9	16.8	-2.89	15.5	16.1	-0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.38,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.48,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 80, WAS 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.16,0.05,0	91.6%
HOU 107, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.14,0.03,0,0,0,0	91.5%
SAS 95, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.01,0	91.5%