NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	103		Excitement	9.8 [79]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): +34.3%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	4.3 [668]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): -22.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.27	0.28	0.01	0.02	19	85%	0.30	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	9	67%	0.19	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Brian Skinner	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Reiner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.04
Mo Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.1,0.01,-0.05	-0.10	0.05	0.00	21	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
David Noel	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Earl Boykins	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	6	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,-0.01,-0.23	0.08	-0.30	0.01	6	94%	0.20	3	-0.43	4	100%	0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.46,0.34	0.34	0.11	0.23	-0.00	13	70%	0.39	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.44,0.33,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.00	17	71%	0.36	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.08
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.01	0.01	10	74%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	18	41%	-0.08	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	4	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.13	0.01	11	52%	0.04	4	-0.22	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.6	29.5	15.8	28.0	2.5	35.5	135.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +3.9%

MIL -7.1%

DAL +19.0%

DAL +28.8%

DAL +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DAL	NBA	MIL	DAL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.5	15.4	107.3	109.4	104.5
season	15.2	16.3		105.3	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		102.3	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.9	13.9	14.6	13.8	14.5
DAL	16.1	16.1	14.8	15.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	55	57	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-2	2	14.4	14.6	-0.21	14.9	16.4	-1.52
Jared Reiner	14	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	0	-2	12.9	14.8	-1.83	16.4	15.4	0.99
Earl Boykins	31	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	1	-4	12.0	15.7	-3.63	15.9	15.3	0.64
David Noel	35	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	3	-8	13.0	15.3	-2.30	15.1	15.7	-0.58
Charlie Bell	57	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.51	10	-12	22	14.3	14.8	-0.47	15.2	15.9	-0.67
Michael Redd	70	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	15.1	12.7	2.41	15.3	16.0	-0.67
Brian Skinner	82	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.48	0	-2	2	14.8	12.9	1.83	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Ersan Ilyasova	41	39	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	14.6	14.4	0.21	16.4	14.9	1.52
Mo Williams	73	72	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.41	-10	8	-18	15.3	11.8	3.50	15.7	14.9	0.79

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	73	74	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.45	14	-12	26	15.2	16.5	-1.27	14.7	13.7	1.05
DeSagana Diop	30	29	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.53	2	0	2	13.3	16.5	-3.26	13.2	15.0	-1.84
Devin Harris	72	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	5	-8	15.5	15.5	-0.04	14.4	14.8	-0.44
Greg Buckner	43	40	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	5	-8	14.9	16.0	-1.05	12.4	16.0	-3.63
Austin Croshere	29	29	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.01	8	-6	14	15.4	15.6	-0.19	15.3	14.1	1.13
Jerry Stackhouse	60	59	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	2	-2	16.2	14.3	1.88	14.0	15.2	-1.23
Dirk Nowitzki	30	31	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	4	-6	16.0	15.3	0.71	15.5	14.0	1.52
Josh Howard	79	80	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.10	-6	8	-14	15.4	15.9	-0.52	15.0	11.8	3.21
Erick Dampier	64	65	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.09	0	2	-2	16.6	13.3	3.25	15.1	13.1	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.19,0.33,0.31,0.55,0.45,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	91.1%
SAS 95, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	90.8%
SAS 70, MIN 74	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.58,1	90.1%