NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	109		Excitement	11.4 [29]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +56.0%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	262.2 [8]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -31.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.09	0.21	0.01	15	63%	0.33	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.07
Nene	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	13	68%	0.33	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.06
J.R. Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.09	0.13	-0.04	-0.00	15	70%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Linas Kleiza	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08	0.04	-0.08	0.04	9	60%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1,-0.08	-0.10	-0.03	-0.04	14	43%	0.17	5	-0.26	9	56%	-0.03
Steve Blake	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.15	-0.18	-0.02	19	32%	-0.23	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.56	0.56	0.03	0.52	-0.00	15	56%	0.77	3	-0.21	9	89%	0.05
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	13	59%	0.12	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.09
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.03	-0.05	15	58%	0.11	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.03
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	100%	0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	4	100%	0.09	6	-0.17	2	100%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	0.11	-0.21	0.01	23	61%	0.11	3	-0.23	10	90%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	28.3	16.3	25.4	2.5	41.0	1.6	17.4	159.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +51.9%

DET +12.3%

DET +1.2%

DEN -21.3%

DET +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DET	NBA	DEN	DET	NBA
this game	14.4	16.2	15.4	103.8	109.7	104.5
season	14.0	16.8		105.8	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.7	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	16.8	11.5	14.9	14.6	13.6	14.4
DET	15.1	19.8	16.4	14.8	13.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	62	59	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.22	9	-13	22	13.8	15.3	-1.50	16.0	16.4	-0.40
Linas Kleiza	45	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-6	8	14.4	14.4	-0.02	15.9	16.5	-0.60
Reggie Evans	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-2	0	17.6	13.9	3.75	17.8	15.9	1.87
Nene	92	90	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-5	6	14.2	15.5	-1.22	16.8	12.1	4.72
Marcus Camby	83	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	3	-10	14.7	13.4	1.24	15.6	18.3	-2.65
Allen Iverson	87	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	7	-18	14.9	12.0	2.89	16.0	17.4	-1.38
Steve Blake	51	50	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	2	-8	14.3	14.5	-0.23	16.8	15.6	1.16
Carmelo Anthony	91	90	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.53	-6	2	-8	13.8	18.1	-4.25	16.0	17.4	-1.35

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	92	95	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.41	18	-14	32	15.8	19.5	-3.64	14.9	9.7	5.18
Tayshaun Prince	88	91	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.26	12	-8	20	15.5	20.1	-4.60	14.7	12.3	2.43
Antonio McDyess	77	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.53	1	3	-2	15.7	17.7	-1.99	14.0	15.4	-1.42
Rasheed Wallace	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	-3	10	16.1	16.4	-0.27	15.1	13.3	1.80
Ronald Murray	88	91	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	3	-2	15.8	18.3	-2.49	13.8	18.0	-4.16
Jason Maxiell	46	50	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.14	9	-5	14	16.3	16.2	0.10	15.6	13.3	2.35
Nazr Mohammed	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	21.0	16.0	4.99	4.2	14.8	-10.54
Dale Davis	11	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	10	-16	20.9	15.6	5.27	13.1	14.5	-1.43
Carlos Delfino	26	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	12	-20	18.0	15.6	2.45	13.4	14.7	-1.25
Lindsey Hunter	17	15	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.15	-10	14	-24	19.2	15.6	3.56	12.7	14.7	-2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.68,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.18,0.3,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.32,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.24,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 107, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.42,1	86.3%
PHX 115, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.08,0	85.8%
LAL 110, POR 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.41,0.46,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.42,1	85.0%