NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	99		Excitement	9.6 [93]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +55.0%
Seattle SuperSonics	98		Comeback	9.7 [111]		LVP	Earl Watson (SEA): -18.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.55	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.08,0,0.55	0.02	0.52	-0.00	12	63%	0.69	4	-0.14	6	83%	-0.05
Al Harrington	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	-0.01	0.02	12	77%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	19	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Kelenna Azubuike	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	5	46%	-0.03	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.07
Monta Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.14,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13	-0.15	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.14	8	-0.26	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	12	33%	-0.04	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.31	0.31	0.09	0.24	0.01	18	55%	0.31	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.10
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Chris Wilcox	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	11	62%	0.08	5	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	-0.00	6	57%	-0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.11	-0.00	6	47%	-0.05	1	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	21	49%	0.03	5	-0.15	9	100%	0.06
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	6	44%	0.03	5	-0.22	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.6	27.3	15.7	25.0	1.6	36.2	131.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +76.2%

SEA -19.7%

SEA -24.5%

GSW +10.5%

GSW +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SEA	NBA	GSW	SEA	NBA
this game	13.9	13.9	15.4	95.2	95.1	104.5
season	13.5	15.4		105.7	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.2	14.4	15.6	13.7	13.9
SEA	13.1	13.3	13.2	16.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	54	54	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.51	15	-14	29	12.9	15.0	-2.05	14.8	13.0	1.86
Andris Biedrins	74	73	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-5	11	13.7	14.3	-0.57	14.4	12.8	1.64
Monta Ellis	60	60	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.59	-4	5	-9	14.1	13.6	0.49	14.0	13.8	0.24
Stephen Jackson	74	74	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.51	-2	3	-5	14.0	13.6	0.41	13.8	14.3	-0.53
Jason Richardson	78	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.57	-4	5	-9	13.6	14.7	-1.06	13.4	15.4	-2.06
Josh Powell	15	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	1	-1	13.4	14.0	-0.58	14.1	13.9	0.23
Kelenna Azubuike	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	0	1	13.7	13.9	-0.23	6.0	14.2	-8.17
Matt Barnes	28	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	0	1	14.0	13.9	0.14	14.2	13.8	0.35
Mickael Pietrus	53	53	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	6	-11	15.0	12.7	2.29	13.9	13.9	-0.02
Al Harrington	81	81	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.22	-3	4	-7	14.0	13.4	0.59	13.7	14.9	-1.24

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	54	54	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-3	5	12.1	16.0	-3.91	13.6	14.2	-0.63
Chris Wilcox	59	60	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-5	9	13.7	14.3	-0.59	14.2	13.4	0.84
Nick Collison	84	84	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.37	8	-9	17	13.4	16.2	-2.73	14.0	13.4	0.61
Rashard Lewis	97	97	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.45	10	-11	21	13.8	16.2	-2.37	14.0	12.1	1.88
Ray Allen	84	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-5	9	14.4	11.7	2.69	14.1	13.1	0.92
Johan Petro	23	24	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.01	-18	17	-35	14.4	13.8	0.59	12.5	14.3	-1.76
Earl Watson	67	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.46	-6	5	-11	14.6	12.6	2.03	13.9	13.9	0.05
Damien Wilkins	47	49	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.55	-9	8	-17	15.4	12.7	2.79	13.7	14.1	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.42,0.62,0.43,0.24,0.47,0.69,0.65,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.91,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.58,0	90.3%
ORL 100, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.62,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.74,0	89.9%
CLE 97, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.37,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.72,0	89.2%