NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	95		Excitement	6.0 [617]		MVP	John Salmons (SAC): +15.4%
Orlando Magic	83		Comeback	6.1 [121]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -21.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.02	7	81%	0.23	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.05	0.04	4	69%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Metta World Peace	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	17	47%	0.10	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.03	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	20	85%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	15	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	35%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	10	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	8	63%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	13	55%	0.11	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Carlos Arroyo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	15	59%	0.09	4	-0.11	9	100%	0.07
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.07	0.03	6	29%	-0.07	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.19	-0.05	-0.02	10	25%	-0.10	5	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	29.3	16.0	27.5	2.0	41.3	146.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +5.1%

SAC +25.7%

ORL -3.3%

SAC +24.7%

ORL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.1	15.4	104.4	90.2	104.5
season	14.7	15.9		104.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.2	16.8	14.8	16.6	16.3
ORL	15.5	14.5	15.8	14.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	41	43	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.14	20	-8	28	15.7	16.8	-1.11	15.7	14.6	1.09
Francisco Garcia	24	26	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	5	2	17.6	15.9	1.69	16.7	14.5	2.16
John Salmons	47	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	8	-4	16.0	16.7	-0.75	16.2	14.0	2.19
Mike Bibby	65	64	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-1	14	15.3	18.9	-3.62	14.6	16.3	-1.70
Metta World Peace	78	80	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	2	8	16.5	15.5	1.03	14.8	17.1	-2.23
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	61	62	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	6	0	16.4	16.2	0.16	15.2	15.1	0.06
Brad Miller	78	77	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	13	-14	16.9	13.1	3.81	14.9	16.6	-1.74
Kevin Martin	61	60	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	11	-10	16.7	15.6	1.10	14.5	16.3	-1.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	20	18	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-13	14	14.3	15.4	-1.01	17.8	16.0	1.86
Carlos Arroyo	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-13	14	13.0	15.2	-2.19	6.0	16.6	-10.57
Tony Battie	42	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-10	8	15.5	14.8	0.66	17.2	15.6	1.62
Trevor Ariza	49	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-6	0	15.0	15.3	-0.26	16.9	15.6	1.32
Keyon Dooling	52	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-4	-4	15.1	15.2	-0.19	15.5	17.3	-1.82
Grant Hill	49	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	0	-12	14.6	15.8	-1.18	16.3	16.4	-0.18
JJ Redick	40	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-11	10	16.1	14.4	1.65	15.9	16.6	-0.72
Darko Milicic	55	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-7	2	15.6	14.4	1.19	15.6	17.3	-1.72
Dwight Howard	77	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	0	-12	14.9	16.2	-1.26	16.3	16.6	-0.27
Jameer Nelson	74	74	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.00	-16	4	-20	15.1	15.4	-0.38	16.7	14.6	2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.6,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.28,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 115, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.21,0.15,0.09,0	93.1%
WAS 114, SAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.03,0.07,0.1,0	93.0%
PHX 106, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	92.3%