NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Excitement	7.2 [401]		MVP	Anderson Varejao (CLE): +27.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	20.6 [68]		LVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): -34.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anderson Varejao	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.28	0.05	0.23	-0.00	3	67%	0.28	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.05
Donyell Marshall	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.08	-0.00	10	86%	0.26	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.01	22	67%	0.43	6	-0.25	4	100%	0.04
Ira Newble	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.08	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	59%	0.01	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.21	-0.12	0.01	9	20%	-0.13	6	-0.21	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.01	0.00	13	80%	0.21	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	5	80%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lynn Greer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	59%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.25,-0.15	-0.15	0.07	-0.20	0.02	25	56%	-0.03	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	0.01	-0.02	15	20%	-0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.6	29.1	16.8	23.0	2.5	32.7	131.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +61.7%

CLE +13.0%

CLE +5.7%

MIL -30.3%

MIL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.6	15.4	102.2	101.1	104.5
season	16.0	15.2		103.2	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		109.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.6	14.7	17.0	13.5	14.9
MIL	14.8	16.7	16.5	18.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	71	72	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.50	15	-13	28	14.1	17.4	-3.30	16.8	16.0	0.76
Ira Newble	17	17	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.35	12	-10	22	10.1	16.0	-5.84	19.5	15.9	3.60
Larry Hughes	73	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	14.0	18.3	-4.33	16.5	17.1	-0.63
Anderson Varejao	54	53	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	14.9	14.8	0.11	16.7	16.5	0.18
Donyell Marshall	40	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-8	18	14.7	15.0	-0.36	17.5	15.9	1.59
Eric Snow	50	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.41	-9	11	-20	15.8	13.7	2.10	16.0	17.3	-1.28
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	37	38	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	3	-4	15.2	14.7	0.56	16.5	16.7	-0.18
Shannon Brown	18	15	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	7	-12	17.9	14.1	3.74	16.5	16.6	-0.09
Sasha Pavlovic	51	50	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.13	-11	13	-24	16.1	13.4	2.73	16.0	17.3	-1.25
Drew Gooden	49	50	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.09	-10	12	-22	15.5	14.2	1.26	16.0	17.3	-1.30

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	37	35	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.16	-4	2	-6	16.6	16.6	-0.02	15.3	14.6	0.70
Brian Skinner	72	70	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	0	-2	16.7	16.1	0.63	14.9	14.9	0.02
Lynn Greer	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	0	-2	16.0	16.7	-0.65	9.4	15.3	-5.90
Michael Redd	74	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.58	7	-9	16	16.7	16.4	0.31	15.1	13.7	1.37
Andrew Bogut	72	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.50	4	-6	10	16.5	17.1	-0.63	15.1	13.7	1.44
Charlie Bell	70	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.58	5	-7	12	15.9	18.9	-2.93	15.8	11.6	4.13
Mo Williams	69	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.40	-7	5	-12	17.4	14.1	3.25	14.2	17.3	-3.12
Ruben Patterson	54	53	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.38	-11	9	-20	16.5	16.8	-0.30	14.3	15.6	-1.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.71,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.81,0.72,0.9,0.79,0.91,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 91, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.74,0.76,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.84,0	91.0%
MIN 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.84,0	90.8%
DEN 98, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	90.4%