NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	10.6 [54]		MVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): +33.6%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	15.9 [156]		LVP	Charles Hayes (HOU): -67.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.34	0.18	0.18	0.03	23	68%	0.57	4	-0.24	11	91%	0.09
Kenny Thomas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	9	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	53%	0.11	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.00	18	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	10	52%	-0.05	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	8	25%	-0.13	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24	0.24	0.11	0.14	0.01	7	94%	0.29	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.27,0.27,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.03	0.01	17	69%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.16,-0.12,-0.02,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.02	0.18	0.01	26	46%	0.20	2	-0.05	9	44%	-0.06
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	17	53%	0.08	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23,-0.44,-0.57,-0.67,-0.67,-0.67,-0.67	-0.67	-0.13	-0.53	0.00	10	30%	-0.19	4	-0.48	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	31.2	15.5	24.5	2.4	28.4	2.5	15.4	143.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +46.8%

SAC -38.4%

HOU +60.5%

SAC -22.7%

HOU +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	HOU	NBA	SAC	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	15.4	104.0	107.9	104.5
season	14.7	15.6		104.7	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.1		99.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	15.6	15.1	15.6	18.8	16.1	16.2
HOU	15.7	14.3	15.7	14.8	19.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	46	45	0.38	-0.88	1.27	-0.09	16	-21	37	15.7	16.6	-0.98	15.8	15.2	0.56
Francisco Garcia	32	34	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.26	2	-7	9	16.2	16.1	0.10	14.4	16.0	-1.68
Corliss Williamson	37	38	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.12	-1	-4	3	18.1	15.1	3.02	15.8	15.3	0.48
Kenny Thomas	84	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	3	-11	16.2	16.1	0.14	15.9	13.6	2.26
Kevin Martin	72	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.52	-2	-3	1	16.4	15.7	0.70	15.5	15.3	0.25
John Salmons	66	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.33	-10	5	-15	15.8	17.0	-1.24	15.1	16.2	-1.10
Metta World Peace	88	86	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.37	-15	10	-25	16.4	14.6	1.81	15.5	15.1	0.47
Mike Bibby	75	77	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.61	-7	2	-9	15.4	18.4	-2.96	15.4	15.8	-0.43

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	59	58	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.54	7	-2	9	15.1	15.9	-0.79	15.5	17.1	-1.54
Tracy McGrady	82	83	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.37	11	-6	17	15.6	15.0	0.57	16.3	15.6	0.71
Shane Battier	84	81	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-4	13	15.4	15.8	-0.43	15.7	18.1	-2.31
Luther Head	51	52	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	15.4	15.6	-0.19	17.1	15.2	1.91
Rafer Alston	85	83	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	3	-1	15.5	15.5	-0.04	16.0	16.8	-0.78
Bonzi Wells	54	52	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.13	9	-4	13	15.1	15.9	-0.88	16.6	15.8	0.79
Juwan Howard	41	41	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	12	-19	15.6	15.4	0.24	15.0	17.0	-2.00
Dikembe Mutombo	49	50	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.07	-11	16	-27	16.2	14.7	1.51	17.3	15.1	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 94, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.33,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.95,1,1	89.4%
DAL 105, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.45,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	89.2%
BOS 88, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.26,0.26,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.4,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.58,1	89.2%