NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	6.1 [613]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +38.3%
Toronto Raptors	113		Comeback	1.7 [909]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -15.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.20	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.22	0.05	0.06	14	89%	0.35	5	-0.14	8	75%	0.00
JJ Redick	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.04	-0.04	11	56%	0.18	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Keith Bogans	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	69%	0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	11	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.03	12	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	12	43%	-0.03	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.38	0.21	0.18	0.01	25	61%	0.42	1	-0.04	17	88%	0.07
Jorge Garbajosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.02	11	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.01	8	52%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	60%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	3	100%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	7	50%	0.00	4	-0.12	6	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.0	27.0	16.8	28.0	1.8	36.2	137.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +5.5%

TOR +18.7%

TOR +0.0%

TOR +29.0%

ORL -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.4	109.6	120.2	104.5
season	15.9	15.2		103.4	104.7
opponent	15.4	15.7		104.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	18.4	15.3	15.9	16.1
TOR	15.1	12.9	16.0	14.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	54	54	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-8	6	15.1	17.4	-2.25	14.7	14.3	0.45
Pat Garrity	12	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-7	4	17.2	16.0	1.22	12.0	14.9	-2.90
Dwight Howard	82	83	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-6	2	16.1	15.8	0.31	14.7	13.5	1.22
Carlos Arroyo	37	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-9	8	16.3	16.0	0.36	15.9	13.7	2.15
Bo Outlaw	45	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-8	6	16.8	15.5	1.25	15.1	14.0	1.10
Jameer Nelson	57	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	16.0	16.3	-0.36	13.7	15.9	-2.15
JJ Redick	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-5	0	16.3	15.8	0.58	14.0	15.3	-1.27
Darko Milicic	48	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	2	-14	15.4	16.9	-1.49	14.8	14.3	0.47
Keith Bogans	79	80	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	2	-14	16.5	14.2	2.27	14.5	14.5	0.04

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jorge Garbajosa	65	63	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.10	15	-5	20	15.1	13.2	1.87	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Chris Bosh	86	89	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.12	13	-3	16	15.2	7.2	7.96	16.2	13.6	2.65
Anthony Parker	69	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.05	11	-1	12	14.1	15.8	-1.67	15.8	16.8	-1.00
T.J. Ford	51	51	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	2	6	14.4	14.7	-0.31	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Rasho Nesterovic	62	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	9	-8	14.4	14.7	-0.28	16.0	16.3	-0.35
Morris Peterson	37	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	8	-6	14.5	14.5	0.01	16.9	15.6	1.38
Jose Calderon	49	49	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	9	-8	13.3	15.9	-2.60	15.2	17.1	-1.84
Andrea Bargnani	37	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	9	-8	15.8	13.7	2.15	16.4	15.9	0.44
Joey Graham	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	12	-14	11.7	15.0	-3.31	17.9	15.8	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.98,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.85,1,1,1	94.3%
CLE 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.97,0.99,1	94.2%
HOU 73, PHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%