NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	11.0 [37]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +49.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	16.2 [112]		LVP	Smush Parker (LAL): -20.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.50	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.5	0.04	0.45	-0.00	16	53%	0.54	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.26	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.17,0.26,0.26	-0.02	0.27	0.00	17	46%	0.31	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.12
Bruce Bowen	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	-0.05	0.26	-0.00	8	31%	0.25	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	16	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.07
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,0.02	-0.07	0.07	-0.01	23	44%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Francisco Elson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.08	-0.11	0.00	3	100%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	11%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.2,0.43	0.43	0.06	0.36	-0.00	25	56%	0.51	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.35	0.35	0.08	0.27	-0.01	9	65%	0.35	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	12	53%	0.05	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.15
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	12	38%	-0.04	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.7	4.0	33.0	17.8	29.3	3.6	36.3	1.8	18.0	171.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL -21.9%

SAS +48.1%

SAS +24.8%

LAL -3.2%

SAS +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	17.5	15.0	15.4	99.0	94.9	104.5
season	16.2	15.3		107.5	106.3
opponent	14.9	15.4		107.3	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	18.1	18.5	17.5	17.7	13.2	17.5
LAL	14.6	14.3	14.6	16.6	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	53	55	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.75	1	1	0	16.5	18.7	-2.19	14.2	16.0	-1.78
Bruce Bowen	62	66	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-7	16	17.0	18.3	-1.33	15.4	14.3	1.06
Tim Duncan	78	79	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	-2	6	17.9	15.5	2.48	14.7	16.3	-1.62
Tony Parker	78	78	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	2	-2	17.7	16.6	1.04	15.3	13.8	1.52
Brent Barry	32	31	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.05	9	-7	16	19.1	16.6	2.48	16.6	14.3	2.38
Fabricio Oberto	33	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-3	8	18.5	16.9	1.59	15.0	15.0	-0.01
Beno Udrih	13	14	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	-1	4	14.6	17.9	-3.29	14.5	15.1	-0.59
Michael Finley	60	61	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.32	-13	15	-28	16.9	18.4	-1.43	14.9	15.2	-0.28
Jacque Vaughn	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.06	-1	3	-4	21.0	17.2	3.77	12.4	15.2	-2.78
Francisco Elson	20	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	6	-10	15.6	17.9	-2.29	16.8	14.5	2.27
Robert Horry	50	51	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.10	-3	5	-8	18.0	16.9	1.07	14.3	15.8	-1.48

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	28	27	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.09	6	-8	14	15.2	14.9	0.33	16.4	17.9	-1.41
Jordan Farmar	23	22	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.05	4	-6	10	16.4	14.6	1.80	15.5	18.1	-2.60
Brian Cook	10	10	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.02	6	-8	14	13.3	15.2	-1.90	24.1	16.7	7.40
Ronny Turiaf	18	18	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	16.4	14.7	1.75	15.7	17.9	-2.14
Sasha Vujacic	16	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	0	-2	18.9	14.3	4.61	17.4	17.5	-0.11
Lamar Odom	76	76	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	2	-6	14.9	15.3	-0.44	18.1	15.1	2.96
Kobe Bryant	90	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-4	6	14.7	18.6	-3.90	17.2	19.6	-2.38
Andrew Bynum	81	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.47	-3	1	-4	14.7	16.4	-1.75	17.9	15.7	2.14
Smush Parker	76	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.49	-6	4	-10	14.6	16.4	-1.80	18.1	15.5	2.60
Vladimir Radmanovic	66	65	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.46	-12	10	-22	14.8	15.5	-0.67	17.1	18.2	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.8,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.83,0.77,0.58,0.54,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 84, GSW 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.89,0.84,0.57,0.42,0.5,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.43,0	91.2%
TOR 121, NOH 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.79,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.91,0.46,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.73,0	90.7%
PHX 105, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.93,0.78,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.42,0	89.9%