NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	115		Excitement	5.5 [744]		MVP	Steve Nash (PHX): +23.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	100		Comeback	1.5 [966]		LVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): -22.4%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.24	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.03	-0.06	17	68%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.05	0.04	12	74%	0.18	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.01	12	66%	0.19	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Raja Bell	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.01	-0.02	11	65%	0.15	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.03	0.05	12	69%	0.11	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
James Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.03	-0.03	16	58%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	9	83%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	22	60%	0.14	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.02
Eric Snow	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	6	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.04	0.04	13	27%	-0.15	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.7	29.7	17.8	25.2	2.8	31.2	138.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +51.3%

PHX +1.4%

CLE -15.5%

PHX +17.0%

CLE -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	CLE	NBA	PHX	CLE	NBA
this game	15.0	17.4	15.4	129.2	112.4	104.5
season	13.8	16.0		112.2	103.2
opponent	15.6	16.0		99.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.7	13.9	16.6	15.9	15.0
CLE	17.6	18.2	17.7	16.1	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	54	56	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.00	24	-9	33	15.6	14.0	1.63	18.2	15.9	2.27
Raja Bell	71	73	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.03	23	-8	31	15.2	14.3	0.82	17.9	15.1	2.74
Steve Nash	65	65	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	2	11	14.7	15.8	-1.16	18.0	15.7	2.28
Shawn Marion	77	76	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	8	-1	14.9	15.8	-0.98	17.1	18.8	-1.73
Leandro Barbosa	61	60	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	10	-5	14.5	16.1	-1.58	16.7	18.8	-2.16
Amar'e Stoudemire	70	71	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	8	-1	15.0	14.8	0.25	17.6	16.3	1.37
James Jones	34	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	17	-19	14.9	15.1	-0.22	15.6	18.4	-2.85
Marcus Banks	13	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	17	-19	16.2	14.8	1.36	15.4	17.7	-2.29

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	38	37	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.02	3	-18	21	15.7	18.6	-2.94	15.6	14.6	0.99
Daniel Gibson	38	39	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-18	21	16.1	18.3	-2.21	14.9	15.1	-0.16
Anderson Varejao	31	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.11	-8	-7	-1	17.5	17.3	0.12	13.4	15.7	-2.29
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	23	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	19.5	16.6	2.84	15.4	14.8	0.60
Eric Snow	23	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	19.5	16.6	2.84	15.4	14.8	0.60
Drew Gooden	69	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-11	7	17.6	16.7	0.80	15.5	12.9	2.56
Donyell Marshall	50	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-7	-1	16.5	18.4	-1.90	14.9	15.1	-0.29
LeBron James	77	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-7	-1	17.4	17.3	0.04	15.0	14.9	0.08
David Wesley	29	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	1	-17	16.7	17.7	-1.06	14.3	15.3	-0.99
Larry Hughes	67	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.00	-21	6	-27	18.3	14.5	3.75	14.9	15.2	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.14,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
MIL 96, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
SAS 92, MIN 76	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%