NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	7.2 [407]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +51.9%
Dallas Mavericks	106		Comeback	2.1 [885]		LVP	Kenny Thomas (SAC): -11.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.25	0.11	0.13	-0.01	14	62%	0.25	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Brad Miller	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	5	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.01	15	69%	0.19	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.04
Corliss Williamson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.02	0.00	12	65%	0.11	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	12	50%	0.07	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	2	67%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.01
Quincy Douby	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.52	0.52	0.21	0.31	-0.00	18	73%	0.54	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.07
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	6	67%	0.16	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.01	0.09	-0.04	17	53%	0.22	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	10	70%	0.14	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.11,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	15	43%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	31.2	15.7	23.4	1.8	36.3	135.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.6%

DAL +9.7%

DAL +14.5%

SAC -9.0%

DAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	15.4	110.6	110.4	104.5
season	14.7	16.3		104.7	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.1		102.3	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.5	19.1	14.6	14.0	15.6
DAL	15.8	14.5	14.8	13.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	56	58	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.31	14	-16	30	13.9	18.2	-4.23	15.0	14.2	0.75
Quincy Douby	11	10	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-7	12	19.6	15.1	4.53	12.9	14.9	-2.00
Kenny Thomas	35	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-2	2	16.1	15.4	0.67	15.2	14.4	0.85
Mike Bibby	67	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-8	14	14.5	18.6	-4.09	14.9	14.0	0.90
Kevin Martin	80	83	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-2	2	14.8	20.1	-5.29	15.2	11.7	3.46
Metta World Peace	74	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-3	4	14.4	20.3	-5.92	15.3	12.2	3.14
Corliss Williamson	49	49	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	1	-4	16.1	15.2	0.93	14.6	14.8	-0.20
John Salmons	39	41	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	5	-12	17.3	14.4	2.90	13.3	15.7	-2.39
Francisco Garcia	21	21	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	10	-22	19.9	14.4	5.43	12.5	15.3	-2.83
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	38	38	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	12	-26	18.2	13.9	4.23	14.2	15.0	-0.75

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	79	78	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.51	8	-6	14	14.5	15.4	-0.81	15.9	14.2	1.75
Devin Harris	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-2	6	13.9	15.7	-1.82	16.9	13.8	3.06
Jason Terry	73	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	0	2	15.3	12.7	2.62	15.4	16.4	-0.98
DeSagana Diop	48	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-6	14	14.5	14.9	-0.46	15.8	15.5	0.33
Jerry Stackhouse	50	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	-2	6	14.3	15.1	-0.85	16.1	15.2	0.85
Josh Howard	76	75	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.35	-9	11	-20	15.3	12.4	2.89	15.0	18.0	-2.96
Erick Dampier	32	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	4	-6	15.6	14.2	1.31	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Devean George	52	48	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	6	-10	13.9	15.6	-1.71	13.7	17.7	-3.94
Anthony Johnson	6	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	1	0	17.5	14.5	3.00	20.6	15.4	5.24
Greg Buckner	6	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	4	-6	13.7	14.8	-1.09	20.1	15.3	4.87
DJ Mbenga	2	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	2	-2	12.5	14.7	-2.23	9.0	15.7	-6.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.85,0.94,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 97, CHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.84,1	93.2%
DET 90, MIL 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.91,1	92.7%
MIL 80, CHH 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.73,0.75,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.5%