NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	11.2 [35]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): +12.2%
Philadelphia 76ers	98		Comeback	8.9 [136]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -29.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.13	-0.00	17	56%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Dorell Wright	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	11	44%	-0.07	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
James Posey	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	11	29%	-0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.18,-0.24	-0.08	-0.14	0.02	26	46%	0.14	5	-0.38	9	78%	-0.12
Udonis Haslem	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29	-0.05	-0.24	0.00	14	44%	-0.09	3	-0.20	6	50%	-0.07

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.09	0.17	-0.05	12	50%	0.25	6	-0.12	8	100%	0.11
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	10	65%	0.14	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	11	64%	0.32	6	-0.30	3	67%	-0.04
Kevin Ollie	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	10	54%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.13	-0.00	15	42%	-0.14	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	27.2	15.4	27.1	1.8	42.2	1.5	16.2	156.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +81.2%

PHI +10.0%

MIA -64.4%

PHI +26.5%

MIA -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	17.4	13.3	15.4	91.3	95.1	104.5
season	16.0	15.5		102.4	101.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.2	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	17.4	19.8	14.8	18.1	17.1	17.4
PHI	13.9	14.5	13.4	12.6	11.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	16.9	17.7	-0.72	13.8	13.0	0.77
Dorell Wright	63	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.47	10	-13	23	17.6	17.0	0.68	13.0	13.8	-0.75
Alonzo Mourning	43	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	2	-7	17.4	17.3	0.13	13.8	13.0	0.83
Michael Doleac	12	12	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	6	-15	19.2	17.1	2.13	13.9	13.3	0.65
Jason Kapono	41	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.08	-12	9	-21	16.1	18.2	-2.01	13.8	13.0	0.75
Antoine Walker	60	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.38	3	-6	9	17.8	16.7	1.07	12.9	13.9	-1.01
Udonis Haslem	93	94	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.47	5	-8	13	16.8	22.2	-5.39	13.3	13.6	-0.24
James Posey	70	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.41	0	-3	3	18.2	15.7	2.47	13.2	13.7	-0.57
Dwyane Wade	97	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.35	-5	2	-7	17.3	18.1	-0.83	13.3	14.1	-0.85

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	92	93	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-5	13	13.0	16.5	-3.49	17.0	20.5	-3.45
Andre Miller	92	92	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.54	3	0	3	13.4	12.7	0.69	16.8	21.3	-4.49
Joe Smith	45	45	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.38	6	-3	9	13.5	13.2	0.30	17.4	17.3	0.06
Kyle Korver	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.46	-2	5	-7	13.4	13.1	0.37	17.7	16.5	1.22
Willie Green	77	78	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.46	-4	7	-11	13.1	13.9	-0.78	17.1	18.1	-1.00
Samuel Dalembert	49	52	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	-4	11	12.7	14.0	-1.31	17.3	17.4	-0.15
Alan Henderson	7	6	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	1	1	15.4	13.2	2.24	16.2	17.4	-1.27
Rodney Carney	22	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	2	-1	14.6	13.0	1.65	19.1	16.9	2.21
Kevin Ollie	10	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.07	0	3	-3	13.8	13.3	0.51	21.3	16.8	4.49
Steven Hunter	46	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.07	-6	9	-15	13.6	13.1	0.53	17.3	17.4	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.25,0.16,0.1,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 117, SAC 121	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.11,0.28,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.45,0.83,1	91.8%
IND 119, UTA 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.79,0.84,0.92,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.5,0.6,0.43,0.47,0.68,0.59,0.41,0.46,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0.46,0.31,0.29,0.45,0.42,1	88.2%
MIL 97, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.83,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.37,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.85,1	88.0%