NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	8.4 [211]		MVP	Vince Carter (NJN): +15.5%
New Jersey Nets	91		Comeback	6.0 [215]		LVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): -30.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	14	69%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.11
Andres Nocioni	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.01	12	68%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	9	57%	0.11	4	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Tyrus Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Michael Sweetney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	22%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	9	5%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	5	50%	-0.00	3	-0.13	4	25%	-0.13
Ben Gordon	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.3	-0.12	-0.23	-0.05	17	44%	-0.02	6	-0.28	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.21,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.15	-0.01	15	57%	0.28	5	-0.13	7	71%	0.01
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.03	12	55%	0.17	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.07	0.02	11	53%	0.12	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.04
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	9	64%	0.09	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.03
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	75%	0.10	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.08	-0.04	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	5	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.04	8	15%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.0	32.2	14.6	28.0	2.5	43.9	152.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -17.1%

NJN +35.6%

NJN +25.1%

NJN +10.2%

CHI -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NJN	NBA	CHI	NJN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.8	15.4	87.8	91.0	104.5
season	14.5	15.4		103.1	103.1
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.8	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	13.9	14.8	13.7	14.3
NJN	15.5	13.8	15.8	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	46	46	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.04	4	-9	13	14.4	14.3	0.10	14.5	15.0	-0.50
Adrian Griffin	30	30	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.16	-3	-2	-1	14.6	14.2	0.38	14.6	14.8	-0.17
P.J. Brown	7	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	0	-5	15.4	14.3	1.18	13.0	14.9	-1.88
Thabo Sefolosha	6	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-2	-1	14.2	14.3	-0.18	17.7	14.5	3.19
Malik Allen	34	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.16	-8	3	-11	13.9	14.6	-0.65	15.8	14.2	1.63
Tyrus Thomas	11	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.13	-8	3	-11	11.1	14.7	-3.66	6.4	15.7	-9.28
Andres Nocioni	47	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.64	16	-21	37	14.8	13.9	0.87	16.1	13.4	2.66
Michael Sweetney	20	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	2	-9	13.4	14.6	-1.18	13.6	15.0	-1.44
Ben Wallace	75	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.41	6	-11	17	14.7	13.0	1.69	15.1	13.6	1.48
Luol Deng	87	89	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-4	3	14.6	12.2	2.43	14.7	14.8	-0.08
Kirk Hinrich	56	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-7	9	14.3	14.4	-0.16	15.1	14.2	0.88
Ben Gordon	71	70	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.39	-18	13	-31	14.1	15.0	-0.97	14.2	15.9	-1.69

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bostjan Nachbar	59	57	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	1	3	14.8	14.7	0.11	14.2	14.5	-0.22
Mikki Moore	52	50	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.70	-8	13	-21	16.1	13.3	2.84	15.1	13.5	1.60
Richard Jefferson	88	85	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	1	3	14.5	16.3	-1.80	14.3	14.4	-0.06
Vince Carter	72	71	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.44	0	5	-5	14.7	15.0	-0.30	14.6	13.5	1.13
Jason Kidd	81	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.40	1	4	-3	14.2	16.9	-2.65	14.3	14.6	-0.37
Antoine Wright	3	2	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	5	-5	5.3	15.0	-9.71	5.5	14.5	-9.02
Clifford Robinson	47	48	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	2	1	14.4	15.1	-0.73	14.2	14.5	-0.29
Marcus Williams	23	23	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	2	1	16.5	14.2	2.24	14.2	14.4	-0.16
Hassan Adams	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	4	-3	16.2	14.6	1.62	12.4	14.5	-2.08
Eddie House	24	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.22	8	-3	11	14.5	14.8	-0.38	13.7	14.5	-0.78
Josh Boone	44	45	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.35	11	-6	17	13.9	15.4	-1.50	14.1	14.5	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.39,0.16,0.15,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, LAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.68,0.53,1	89.9%
PHI 96, NJN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.75,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.24,0.16,1	89.5%
DEN 97, OKC 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.19,0.22,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.58,1	89.5%