NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	96		Excitement	6.0 [633]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +22.5%
Houston Rockets	103		Comeback	1.3 [1130]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -15.1%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.07	-0.01	22	65%	0.28	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.03	0.01	13	68%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	79%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	54%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mouhamed Sene	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	27%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.07
Luke Ridnour	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	7	39%	-0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.08	-0.01	21	62%	0.27	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	10	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	73%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	14	60%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	16	41%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	24.6	15.4	25.5	2.3	31.6	128.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +19.3%

SEA -3.2%

HOU +27.0%

HOU +3.7%

HOU +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	HOU	NBA	SEA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.2	17.5	15.4	111.6	121.2	104.5
season	15.4	15.6		105.5	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.2	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.2	14.9	16.3	19.4	16.2
HOU	14.8	17.1	17.2	21.7	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Gelabale	26	24	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.06	10	-17	27	14.8	16.9	-2.10	16.8	17.7	-0.87
Mouhamed Sene	2	1	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-9	11	9.0	16.4	-7.40	13.0	17.5	-4.51
Mike Wilks	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-7	7	0.0	16.4	-16.42	13.0	17.5	-4.51
Nick Collison	40	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.08	-1	-6	5	14.3	17.9	-3.57	16.2	18.6	-2.41
Earl Watson	47	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-11	15	15.9	16.7	-0.84	18.0	16.8	1.27
Danny Fortson	17	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	2	-11	18.7	15.6	3.08	15.6	17.9	-2.34
Johan Petro	39	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-9	11	16.1	16.4	-0.28	18.7	16.4	2.34
Luke Ridnour	55	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	4	-15	15.8	17.0	-1.15	16.3	19.4	-3.09
Chris Wilcox	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	2	-11	16.9	13.8	3.10	18.1	14.9	3.22
Damien Wilkins	62	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	2	-11	17.0	14.3	2.69	17.6	17.2	0.39
Ray Allen	73	74	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.24	-14	7	-21	17.0	11.7	5.35	18.0	13.9	4.08

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	68	69	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.26	11	-4	15	18.5	13.5	4.99	16.3	15.8	0.51
Dikembe Mutombo	48	47	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	1	5	18.6	16.0	2.58	17.2	15.0	2.21
Shane Battier	62	63	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-4	15	18.2	15.4	2.77	16.0	17.0	-0.99
Tracy McGrady	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	-1	9	17.1	18.5	-1.36	16.7	14.9	1.82
John Lucas III	19	20	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	-5	17	18.8	17.1	1.78	17.6	15.8	1.85
Rafer Alston	66	66	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	12	-17	17.1	18.8	-1.78	15.8	17.6	-1.85
Luther Head	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	10	-13	16.7	18.2	-1.52	15.9	16.6	-0.77
Charles Hayes	36	38	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	8	-9	16.1	18.4	-2.29	15.1	17.1	-2.02
Steve Novak	17	17	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	11	-15	13.5	18.5	-4.99	15.8	16.3	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.89,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.97,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 87, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.75,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.93,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1	93.9%
ORL 108, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.96,1	93.7%
OKC 106, BKN 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%