NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	10.4 [61]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +42.0%
Washington Wizards	108		Comeback	4.2 [436]		LVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): -35.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	6	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.13,-0.04,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.07	0.01	23	51%	0.21	4	-0.15	7	86%	0.09
Brian Skinner	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ruben Patterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	57%	0.15	3	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	3	67%	0.02	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	0.04	-0.23	0.00	20	57%	-0.05	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.36	-0.10	-0.26	0.00	17	39%	-0.26	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.09,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.42	0.42	0.05	0.38	0.01	25	58%	0.55	5	-0.13	5	80%	-0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.01	0.02	17	81%	0.32	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.04,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.08	0.03	20	51%	0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	5	33%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.24
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.07	-0.18	0.00	9	28%	-0.21	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.8	27.2	16.4	24.5	2.4	31.9	126.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +82.1%

MIL -40.5%

MIL -0.2%

WAS +9.3%

MIL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.4	15.4	105.0	109.1	104.5
season	15.2	14.8		105.3	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	12.9	14.8	16.3	14.5
WAS	15.4	15.3	14.6	12.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	51	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-5	7	15.3	13.8	1.48	14.0	14.9	-0.95
Andrew Bogut	69	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-5	7	14.9	13.8	1.10	13.8	15.8	-2.07
Steve Blake	40	40	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	0	-3	14.2	14.8	-0.59	14.2	14.5	-0.28
Dan Gadzuric	31	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	2	-7	13.8	14.9	-1.10	15.8	13.8	2.07
Michael Redd	83	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.42	4	-7	11	14.3	15.5	-1.20	14.4	14.3	0.12
Ruben Patterson	49	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	2	-7	13.8	15.3	-1.48	15.2	13.7	1.54
Mo Williams	89	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.31	-6	3	-9	14.5	14.5	0.08	14.7	12.4	2.31
Charlie Bell	88	87	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.41	-4	1	-5	14.9	12.0	2.88	14.0	17.1	-3.04

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	95	96	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.35	9	-6	15	14.4	14.7	-0.35	14.8	8.7	6.02
Gilbert Arenas	92	92	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	2	-1	14.0	19.7	-5.70	14.6	13.5	1.12
Brendan Haywood	45	45	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	-2	7	12.8	15.7	-2.88	15.4	13.8	1.58
Jarvis Hayes	48	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	-2	7	15.0	13.9	1.14	13.7	15.3	-1.62
Antawn Jamison	81	83	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	3	-3	14.8	12.8	2.00	14.7	13.8	0.92
Andray Blatche	41	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	-4	11	14.7	14.2	0.46	15.1	14.1	0.95
DeShawn Stevenson	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.29	-6	9	-15	13.9	15.0	-1.07	15.0	14.0	1.06
Antonio Daniels	19	18	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	5	-7	16.8	13.8	3.00	11.4	15.2	-3.76
Calvin Booth	22	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	7	-11	15.4	14.1	1.22	12.8	15.0	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.26,0.28,0.35,0.27,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.52,0.32,0.41,0.6,0.47,0.38,0.64,0.55,0.72,1	92.5%
BOS 90, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.77,0.57,1	91.7%
IND 110, PHI 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.73,1	91.7%