inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 68 Excitement3.3 [1147] MVPDwight Howard (ORL): +10.3%
Orlando Magic 97 Comeback1.5 [1202] LVPAntoine Walker (MIA): -9.3%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Jason Kapono0.050,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.06-0.010.01979%0.103-0.051100%0.00
Chris Quinn0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03-0.030.00-0.05650%0.052-0.02475%-0.00
James Posey0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02-0.00-0.00-0.03750%0.021-0.0000%0.00
Dorell Wright0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.01-0.000.01960%0.032-0.032100%0.00
Robert Hite-0.000,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.000.00250%-0.0000.0000%0.00
Alonzo Mourning-0.000,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.010.000.01564%0.042-0.04475%0.00
Michael Doleac-0.010,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.06-0.00-0.05629%0.011-0.022100%0.01
Udonis Haslem-0.040,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.040.00-0.00420%-0.0400.002100%0.00
Earl Barron-0.050,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05-0.06-0.01-0.02517%-0.0500.002100%0.01
Gary Payton-0.060,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.01-0.01844%-0.003-0.0600%0.00
Antoine Walker-0.090,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09-0.11-0.01-0.0360%-0.091-0.0100%0.00

Orlando Magic
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Dwight Howard0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.10.100.110.000.01872%0.121-0.01989%0.02
Trevor Ariza0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.050.010.001162%0.091-0.02450%-0.02
Keith Bogans0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.060.010.01669%0.0600.001100%0.01
Tony Battie0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.060.060.060.020.021057%0.0600.0010%-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.010.010.01-0.00-0.00848%0.0100.00786%0.01
Bo Outlaw0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.020.000.021100%0.0000.0000%0.00
Travis Diener0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.00-0.040.00-0.0410%0.0010.0000%0.00
JJ Redick0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.000.090.000.09390%-0.0000.004100%0.00
Pat Garrity0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0-0.00-0.010.00-0.01350%0.001-0.002100%0.00
Carlos Arroyo0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.02-0.060.01-0.03629%-0.011-0.002100%0.00
Darko Milicic0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.03-0.06-0.01-0.03828%-0.0300.00250%-0.01
Jameer Nelson0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.04-0.080.00-0.04937%0.013-0.051100%0.00
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game30.22.530.316.029.02.029.0139.0
league avg28.72.429.915.926.52.434.0141.5
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
ORL +16.2%
ORL +6.7%
ORL +8.0%
ORL +15.5%
ORL +3.7%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIAORLNBAMIAORLNBA
this game17.615.915.480.0111.5104.5
season16.015.9102.4103.4
opponent15.715.6103.0104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA18.018.016.418.317.6
ORL16.414.816.416.015.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Robert Hite1212-0.00-0.500.500.23-8-211318.317.50.8014.416.1-1.68
Michael Doleac3031-0.09-0.410.320.06-5-241916.418.3-1.9815.516.1-0.59
Earl Barron2221-0.12-0.380.270.24-12-17518.317.40.9113.816.5-2.77
Antoine Walker3536-0.15-0.350.200.17-11-18717.018.1-1.1515.716.0-0.24
Chris Quinn4646-0.20-0.300.100.33-18-11-717.018.4-1.4115.716.1-0.45
Udonis Haslem3233-0.23-0.270.050.01-8-211317.817.50.3217.514.92.61
James Posey4950-0.29-0.21-0.090.12-14-15117.417.9-0.4715.716.1-0.43
Gary Payton3941-0.30-0.20-0.100.02-11-18718.417.01.4116.115.70.45
Dorell Wright6059-0.31-0.19-0.120.25-19-10-916.719.8-3.0515.416.9-1.47
Alonzo Mourning3638-0.37-0.13-0.250.04-14-15119.116.62.5916.715.21.46
Jason Kapono6468-0.44-0.06-0.390.29-25-4-2118.315.62.6916.314.32.05

Orlando Magic
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Tony Battie54540.480.020.460.011613316.415.01.3418.516.22.29
Keith Bogans35320.400.100.29-0.071613316.915.21.7118.617.11.52
Dwight Howard55520.310.190.12-0.041217-515.915.80.1317.717.60.07
Hedo Turkoglu53520.290.210.08-0.001019-915.816.0-0.2317.418.1-0.73
Trevor Ariza65640.290.210.08-0.302091115.417.4-2.0117.418.3-0.85
Jameer Nelson40390.250.250.00-0.01920-1116.315.50.7618.516.91.65
Carlos Arroyo37370.250.25-0.00-0.101217-516.215.60.6216.618.5-1.86
Darko Milicic29280.170.33-0.16-0.121019-915.516.0-0.5216.218.4-2.14
Pat Garrity24250.040.46-0.43-0.311217-515.715.9-0.1517.217.8-0.63
JJ Redick21220.020.48-0.45-0.331217-516.015.80.1217.517.7-0.14
Bo Outlaw12110.000.50-0.50-0.23821-1314.416.1-1.6818.117.60.51
Travis Diener1090.000.50-0.50-0.23821-1312.916.2-3.3518.117.60.52


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
GameSimilarity Score
CLE 81, CHI 920.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,196.4%
DAL 99, GSW 1080.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,196.3%
DET 74, PHI 910.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,196.3%