NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	9.8 [83]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +78.7%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	40.8 [43]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -29.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.07	0.15	-0.02	15	56%	0.23	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Luther Head	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.15	0.01	20	60%	0.32	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.01	9	60%	0.24	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	32	53%	0.06	5	-0.13	8	100%	0.08
Charles Hayes	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vassilis Spanoulis	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.79	0.79	0.16	0.63	-0.00	22	62%	0.81	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.2	0.20	0.04	0.16	-0.01	10	61%	0.27	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.04
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	9	55%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.01	7	88%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	53%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	6	44%	-0.04	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.09,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.32,-0.32,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.18	-0.01	16	45%	0.01	6	-0.30	6	83%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	31.0	14.6	27.5	2.6	35.0	137.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +51.6%

GSW +14.0%

HOU -27.4%

HOU -3.7%

GSW +15.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	14.8	12.7	15.4	100.0	106.9	104.5
season	15.6	13.5		103.6	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		105.7	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	11.4	13.4	16.6	18.7	14.8
GSW	13.1	13.7	12.7	11.3	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	4	4	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-5	8	6.2	15.1	-8.86	15.2	12.6	2.62
Charles Hayes	50	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-3	4	14.8	14.8	-0.03	12.0	13.4	-1.45
Yao Ming	91	87	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-12	22	14.7	15.1	-0.34	12.7	12.7	0.08
Dikembe Mutombo	10	8	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	4	-10	12.6	15.0	-2.40	16.1	12.4	3.68
Vassilis Spanoulis	21	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	3	-8	14.6	14.8	-0.25	13.4	12.6	0.83
Shane Battier	73	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-6	10	14.8	14.7	0.06	12.3	13.7	-1.45
Bonzi Wells	38	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	5	-12	15.0	14.7	0.35	13.3	12.4	0.84
Luther Head	89	85	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	15.0	13.7	1.27	12.5	13.8	-1.24
Rafer Alston	104	99	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.44	0	-2	2	14.6	19.7	-5.03	12.8	11.3	1.44
Juwan Howard	55	52	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	9	-20	15.7	13.8	1.92	12.9	12.5	0.42

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	62	65	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.66	11	-9	20	12.4	13.2	-0.76	15.1	14.3	0.77
Monta Ellis	82	85	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	12.1	15.5	-3.44	15.3	12.7	2.58
Mickael Pietrus	58	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.52	-4	6	-10	13.3	11.9	1.41	14.2	15.6	-1.46
Adonal Foyle	57	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.50	-6	8	-14	12.4	13.2	-0.79	14.5	15.1	-0.55
Baron Davis	90	94	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.46	-8	10	-18	12.8	12.3	0.46	14.6	15.7	-1.04
Keith McLeod	32	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	-2	6	14.7	11.8	2.84	13.6	15.4	-1.80
Andris Biedrins	45	47	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.13	5	-3	8	13.2	12.4	0.79	15.1	14.5	0.55
Matt Barnes	84	86	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.22	4	-2	6	12.4	14.3	-1.94	15.1	13.4	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.05,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	88.7%
MIN 108, DEN 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.46,0.31,0.26,1	88.3%
POR 96, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.55,0.16,1	88.2%