NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	7.0 [449]		MVP	Elton Brand (LAC): +40.7%
Los Angeles Clippers	101		Comeback	2.3 [799]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -16.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.04,-0.05,0.17,0.14	0.02	0.12	-0.01	27	52%	0.23	3	-0.09	10	80%	0.07
James Posey	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.02	8	80%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Kapono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Dorell Wright	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	11	32%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	12	26%	-0.16	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.06

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.41	0.41	0.20	0.20	-0.02	18	75%	0.48	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.09	0.00	6	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.08
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.01	-0.01	14	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	58%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	11	46%	0.02	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	7	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.8	29.1	16.3	26.6	2.4	41.0	142.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +42.6%

LAC +11.1%

LAC +26.4%

MIA -18.6%

MIA -11.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	14.8	14.4	15.4	98.0	103.1	104.5
season	16.0	15.7		102.4	103.3
opponent	15.4	15.6		103.6	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	15.1	15.1	14.5	14.8
LAC	14.8	14.9	15.5	12.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	43	42	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.17	8	-12	20	14.2	15.3	-1.08	13.6	15.1	-1.43
Jason Kapono	35	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-6	8	13.8	15.3	-1.54	13.1	15.2	-2.10
Dorell Wright	45	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	0	-4	14.7	14.9	-0.24	15.2	13.8	1.37
James Posey	64	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.36	6	-10	16	14.6	15.2	-0.62	14.0	15.2	-1.22
Gary Payton	48	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-3	2	15.9	13.8	2.05	15.0	13.8	1.23
Jason Williams	39	37	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	8	-20	14.6	14.9	-0.30	15.0	14.1	0.95
Alonzo Mourning	60	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.23	-6	2	-8	15.4	13.9	1.44	15.0	13.6	1.36
Udonis Haslem	78	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.40	-5	1	-6	14.7	15.3	-0.62	14.5	14.2	0.30
Dwyane Wade	83	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.39	-8	4	-12	15.0	13.9	1.03	14.3	15.2	-0.89

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	84	84	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-8	20	14.7	13.0	1.68	15.0	13.4	1.65
Aaron Williams	21	22	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-12	28	13.6	14.7	-1.04	18.0	13.9	4.12
Shaun Livingston	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	-3	10	14.5	14.3	0.18	14.1	16.4	-2.24
Cuttino Mobley	80	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	-3	10	14.5	14.3	0.13	14.3	16.9	-2.62
Quinton Ross	77	77	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	3	-2	14.4	14.6	-0.23	14.8	14.9	-0.14
Sam Cassell	42	41	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	6	-8	14.6	14.3	0.32	16.0	14.0	1.97
Tim Thomas	51	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.25	-2	6	-8	13.6	15.3	-1.73	15.0	14.6	0.40
Corey Maggette	26	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	5	-6	13.9	14.6	-0.75	15.7	14.5	1.19
Chris Kaman	40	39	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	0.16	-18	22	-40	15.5	13.7	1.88	12.6	16.2	-3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.84,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.78,0.89,0.84,0.96,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 77, UTA 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.92,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.78,0.95,0.85,1	92.5%
LAL 110, UTA 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	92.5%
WAS 105, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1	92.1%