NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	92		Excitement	8.1 [248]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +37.2%
Sacramento Kings	89		Comeback	1.6 [396]		LVP	Kenny Thomas (SAC): -18.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.37	0.05	0.33	0.00	9	78%	0.48	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.10	0.00	10	50%	0.16	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Trevor Ariza	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	2	60%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Grant Hill	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.05,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	8	48%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.05
Pat Garrity	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.00	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	9	69%	0.16	4	-0.16	8	50%	-0.06
Keith Bogans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	38%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Darko Milicic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	14	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	9	67%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.1,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	17	44%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	17	46%	-0.03	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	11	48%	0.11	2	-0.17	7	86%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	7	31%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	29.5	16.3	23.5	1.8	33.0	131.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +78.5%

SAC -11.0%

SAC -15.4%

SAC -5.0%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	17.2	14.5	15.4	102.2	96.7	104.5
season	15.9	14.7		103.4	104.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.0	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	16.2	16.5	19.3	17.2
SAC	15.4	13.3	17.7	12.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	65	67	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	-1	5	17.4	16.5	0.94	14.9	13.4	1.49
Tony Battie	55	56	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	-1	5	17.7	16.3	1.38	14.9	13.9	0.99
Dwight Howard	74	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	0	3	17.3	16.7	0.57	14.7	13.6	1.07
Keyon Dooling	39	39	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-9	21	17.3	17.0	0.31	14.7	14.4	0.34
Jameer Nelson	51	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	2	-1	17.3	17.0	0.27	14.8	14.1	0.77
Grant Hill	37	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	4	-5	17.5	16.9	0.52	15.3	13.9	1.36
Carlos Arroyo	39	39	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	1	1	17.0	17.3	-0.27	14.1	14.8	-0.77
Darko Milicic	42	43	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	2	-1	16.8	17.5	-0.65	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Trevor Ariza	25	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	4	-5	16.5	17.4	-0.94	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Pat Garrity	9	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	5	-7	14.7	17.4	-2.77	14.7	14.5	0.20
Keith Bogans	14	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	11	-19	15.9	17.4	-1.54	11.8	15.0	-3.23

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	32	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	1	-5	16.9	13.3	3.61	16.7	17.4	-0.73
Kenny Thomas	68	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.28	6	-9	15	14.6	14.2	0.48	17.1	17.2	-0.02
Ronnie Price	32	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.20	3	-6	9	13.3	15.2	-1.85	16.9	17.3	-0.33
Francisco Garcia	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	3	-9	15.2	14.4	0.78	16.7	17.2	-0.51
Kevin Martin	81	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-4	5	14.7	13.5	1.11	16.8	19.2	-2.32
Corliss Williamson	24	23	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	6	-15	14.2	14.6	-0.48	17.2	17.1	0.02
John Salmons	71	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.0	1.91	17.3	16.7	0.52
Brad Miller	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-4	5	13.3	16.9	-3.61	17.4	16.7	0.73
Mike Bibby	83	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	3	-9	14.4	15.6	-1.15	17.5	13.7	3.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.46,0.47,0.21,0.03,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 100, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.03,0.02,0	92.9%
SAC 110, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.15,0.16,0	92.1%
ATL 80, ORL 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	91.7%